Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Minor E swell Thurs but basically tiny
• Small increase in S swell Fri
• S groundswell wrap this weekend with S’ly winds Sat
• Stronger S swell Sun with light winds tending N’ly
• Small S swells Mon
• More small S swells and some N’ly winds next week as high pressure moves into the Tasman

Recap

Small S swells yesterday supplied 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches with light W’ly winds. Today is seeing smaller 2ft surf at S facing beaches with winds shifting from NW to SW and back again.

This week and next week (May22- May31)

Dominant high pressure has ever so slowly drifted NE up over the Victorian/NSW interior, with winds maintaining a W’ly flow before a S’ly change Fri. Another reinforcing high cell moves in from the Bight later this week, with a small trough off the NSW coast disrupting the S’ly flow. Before high pressure brings light winds. Local swell sources dry up but polar lows better aimed at Pacific targets will send some long period S swell up the pipe from Fri into the weekend before a more subdued outlook takes hold.

In the short run easing swells see a low point tomorrow with tiny surf to 1-1.5ft and offshore winds.

Fri is a different story with S’ly groundswell from a polar low (see below) bringing 2-3ft surf although winds from the S will be a problem.

More S’ly pulses are expected over the weekend as polar lows steam towards the NZ corridor and a slight slowing allows more swell propagation into the Tasman Sea. Expect light winds both day, tending N’ly on Sun.

S swell Sat should be in the 2-4ft range at S facing beaches. A stronger pulse Sun builds into the 3-4ft range with the occ. bigger set.

Easing S groundswell Mon and a small pulse of shorter period S swell from a passing front should see 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches with W’ly winds tending variable in the a’noon.

High pressure finally moves into the Tasman early next week so we should see light winds tending N’ly through Tues into Wed. Light winds should occupy the rest of next week. Small S swell from the front and a poorly aligned fetch near NZ send some  small S/SE swell our way later Wed - likely to be in the 2-3ft range.

We’ll see how it’s looking on Fri.

Seeya then.