Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 17th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr) 

• Stronger S swell building Fri PM, peaking Sat
• Easing S swells Sun
• More S swell pulses next week
• Small E swell Wed/Thurs
• More S groundswell likely Fri next week

Recap

S swells built to 2-3ft yesterday under W’ly winds and we’re seeing stronger 3-4ft surf at S facing beaches today with W winds early tending SW-S/SW and freshening.

This weekend and next week (May17- May24)

A front passing Tasmania today triggers an angled trough of low pressure  off the NSW Coast o/night which quickly moves out into the Tasman Sea. The front will generate strong S swells for Sat with fresh SW winds. Expect size in the 5-6ft range, easing through the day. Winds should tend pre-frontal W/NW late in the day as another front approaches.

Front brings plenty of S swell Sat

W’ly winds Sun morning before the front pushes through and winds tend S-S/SE, with short period S swell building to 2-3ft at S facing beaches.

S’ly winds and small swells look to pad out Mon. By Tues we should be back to SW breezes as a weak front passes to the NE of the state bringing some small S swell with it. Also in the mix will be some long period groundswell from polar lows, with size to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches.

We will see a low in the Tasman next week but it will be too far north for swell production for Tasmania, apart from some small E’ly swells Wed and into Thurs.

We may see some local S swell later next week from a small trough.
More likely we’ll see lighter E’ly-NE’ly winds next weekend and some S’ly groundswell from intense polar lows which look to be steered SE of New Zealand into the prime Tahitian swell window during that time frame.

We’ll check it all out again on Mon, as per usual.

Until then, have a great weekend.