Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Bigger S swell pulse  Fri
• Easing S swells this weekend
• Small again next week
• Possible NE windswell mid next week

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday in the 0.5-1ft range with a small S pulse today offering up some 2ft waves at S exposed breaks under light S/SE tending E’ly winds.

This week and next week (May8- May17)

No great change to this very sluggish pattern as strong high pressure near Tasmania gets reinforced by a new cell and this peanut high straddles Tasmania before inching into the Tasman. The resulting high pressure ridge is leading to deep onshore flows and a trough along the coast NSW coast with a light, settled flow across Tasmania. Polar lows are expected to send some more small S pulses later this week into the weekend.

In the short run not much swell is expected as the current S swell pulse supplies a few 2ft sets at S facing beaches before fading out during the day.

Small into Fri morning before a stronger S pulse fills in with size to 3-4ft at S facing beaches under light/variable winds. 

Into the weekend and the pattern of light E’ly breezes continues with morning offshore winds. Sat morning looks the best of it with leftover S swell to 2-3ft easing during the day.

By Sun we’ll be back to 2ft or less of S swell and mostly tiny surf across the region.

Next week will see a very quiet period of small/tiny surf establish as weak low pressure sits in the Tasman and zonal cold fronts supply W’ly riding across Tasmania. We may see small, just rideable NE windswell develop Tues or Wed but early indications aren’t positive for much more than 1-1.5ft.

Further ahead there is some chance of a S’ly swell from a frontal intrusion later next week but models are divergent so we have very low confidence in specifics right now.

Let’s see how it’s shaping up on Fri.