Christmas 2024 Surf Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

It's that time of the year where everyone clocks off and packs their car for the highway, inbound to their favourite holiday destination. A little extra guidance in terms of what boards to leave or take for the Christmas period is always handy so here's a country wide forecast for the coming week.

Starting on the East Coast and the whole eastern seaboard looks to receive plenty of swell along with generally favourable winds.

Firstly a healthy Tasman Low that’s currently developing between Tasmania and New Zealand should produce some good quality south-southeast energy for Saturday with clean conditions coast wide.

Exposed breaks look to range between 4-6ft (smaller South Coast NSW) before easing slowly Sunday/Monday thanks to a reinforcing pulse of swell generated off the tip of New Zealand's South Island. Expect less size across the Gold and Sunny Coasts.

Into next week, another more zonal low looks to form across the southern Tasman Sea, moving west to east fairly quickly.

This will bring some trickier, varying southerly swell that will perform best from about the Sydney region further north, with an initial acute southerly pulse Tuesday expected to be followed by a better increase Christmas Day across southern NSW.

Northern NSW will see the most size on Christmas Day, while the swell isn’t expected to really impact Queensland beaches (apart from the known magnets).

Expect 4-6ft surf again across the south facing beaches coast wide, with bigger, more consistent sets along the Hunter region.

Winds look best for more exposed locations across southern NSW with light, local offshore breezes while to the north, south-west to south-east breezes will limit the best waves to more protected spots which will be smaller.

The East Coast of Tasmania should pick up fun levels of easterly energy this weekend from the southern flank of the first Tasman Low mentioned above, abating only slowly into next week as the south swell mostly bypasses the coast.

Late in the week a fun north-east windswell pulse is likely but the models are currently divergent regarding the size and timing off a southerly change. Friday morning looks to be the pick of it with easing 3ft sets across north swell magnets.

Moving to the south and a progression of relatively but persistent frontal systems will generate moderate levels of mid-period swell from this weekend into early next week though with unfavourable winds initially (South Australia and Victoria).

Boxing Day will start to improve across South Australia as winds shift east-northeast, but Christmas morning looks to be the pick with great offshore winds for exposed breaks across both states along with fun levels of easing size. Middleton looks to drop from 2ft+ with the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island regions offering great 4ft waves.

Christmas Day potential (Andy Smyth)

Later in the week another good pulse of westerly swell energy is due but conditions look generally poor thanks to a south-west breeze in the wake of a cold front Thursday. In saying this there should be a window of clean conditions east of Melbourne on Boxing Day, ahead of the change.

Southern Tasmania will mostly miss out on the size from the coming westerly swells as the storm track sits a little too far north of the South Arm’s swell window.

Inconsistent 1-2ft surf is due from this weekend through most of next week (smallest and tiny on Christmas Day). For the cleanest conditions, target every morning from Tuesday.

Over in Western Australia, the excellent seen Tuesday will be backed up by offshore winds and a new, large mix of west-southwest swells tomorrow.

The Margaret River region should come in around 8ft with Mandurah offering 3ft sets, grading smaller and to 2ft+ across Perth.

The size will ease through the weekend under less favourable winds Saturday, better (in the South West) but less consistent Sunday.

Most of next week will be dominated by strong winds out of the southern quadrant and this will limit surfing options significantly. A large mix of swells that’s due later Christmas Eve but more so Christmas Day should provide plenty of size inside these protected spots, though Boxing Day looks the pick with more favourable breezes as the swells ease.

Expect Margaret River to reach 8ft+ with Mandurah coming in around 3ft again, with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets across Perth Christmas Day, smaller into the end of the week.

All in all it looks like most regions will offer up a quality wave over the coming week if you've got the flexibility to target the windows of favourable conditions.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from the Swellnet team.

Comments

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Thursday, 19 Dec 2024 at 3:58pm

Thanks Craigos. Looking good for a wave west of VH on Chrissy morning.

alistair.baird's picture
alistair.baird's picture
alistair.baird Thursday, 19 Dec 2024 at 5:33pm

Merry Christmas Craig. Thanks for all the reports this year. You have definitely nailed the SA Mid Coast region.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 19 Dec 2024 at 7:50pm

Merry Christmas from NZ. Hope you all have a great time with family, friends and waves.

Thank you SN for hosting all us old weirdos.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 20 Dec 2024 at 1:22pm

Cheers guys! Appreciate the kind words.

Major kong's picture
Major kong's picture
Major kong Friday, 20 Dec 2024 at 1:34pm

Merry Xmas, SN crew... Cheers for the year!

StayAtHome's picture
StayAtHome's picture
StayAtHome Friday, 20 Dec 2024 at 7:21pm

thanks for the froth and have a peaceful and sustainable new year.