Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 20th)

Best Days: Exposed beaches today, Wednesday morning and Thursday, Surf Coast next Friday/Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mix of swells tomorrow with strong S/SW winds
• Small-mod sized mid-period W/SW swell Sun with fresh S/SW winds, strengthening later
• Moderate sized mix of windswell and SW swell building Mon with strong SW winds (low chance of early W'ly winds Surf Coast)
• Easing swell Tue with mod-fresh S/SW winds (low chance of early W'ly winds Surf Coast)
• Small, easing surf Wed with local offshore winds and SE sea breezes
• Small, inconsistent W/SW swell Wed PM and Thu AM
• Better, long-range but inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Thu PM
• Strong N/NE-NE winds Thu
• Moderate sized mix of W/SW and SW swells building Fri, peaking Sat with gusty W/NW-SW winds

Recap

The early was still a bit raw and lumpy to the east as expected yesterday morning while the dropping tide through the morning also created issues with the size of swell still in the water.

The afternoon was a bit better though wind affected and the Surf Coast was mostly average with some small peaks breaking across the beaches.

Today we’ve got better conditions and smaller surf with good 3ft+ waves across the exposed beaches east of Melbourne and small to tiny peaks on the Surf Coast. Winds will hold ahead of a strong SW change late afternoon.

Better conditions this morning

This weekend and next week (Dec 21 - 27)

This afternoon’s change will unfortunately be followed by high pressure into tomorrow morning, resulting in strong S/SW winds along with a mix of localised windswell and building mid-period W/SW swell into the afternoon.

The source of mid-period swell was a healthy frontal progression that moved from the south-west of Western Australia, under the country the past couple of days, with the remnants of it clipping the state this afternoon, bringing the onshore change.

A peak in size is due Sunday to 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets (2-3ft most spots) with 4-5ft+ sets to the east though with persistent, moderate to fresh S/SW winds that will strengthen later ahead of the next approaching front.

This makes for poor surf all weekend, that will continue into next week as strong SW winds persist across the coast on Monday, with only an outside chance of early W’ly winds around Torquay.

We should see a bit more size from Sunday’s front filling in Monday though, mixed with localised windswell, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, with stormy 6ft waves to the east.

Winds should start to ease into Tuesday but look to persist out of the S/SW, along with easing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast and 6ft waves to the east, and again, the chance of an early light W’ly on the Surf Coast looks slim.

Christmas Day (Wednesday) is the pick of it as the swell drops further under variable tending locally offshore winds. The Surf Coast looks to be easing from 2ft or so with better 4ft waves across the exposed beaches.

Into the afternoon and Thursday morning, a small, long-range W/SW swell is due, but the source wasn’t anything overly interesting and as a result it’s unlikely to top 1-2ft on the Surf Coast but should maintain 3ft sets to the east under strengthening N/NE-NE winds. Later in the day a very long-range W'ly groundswell should be seen, generated by a strong but distant frontal progression in the southern Indian Ocean. The exposed beaches to the east will likely see sets building strongly so keep this in mind.

Now, this strengthening wind will be ahead of a deepening mid-latitude low moving in from the west, with it due to grow in strength while moving across us into the evening and through Friday.

Timing wise, it’s still up for grabs but when it does move across us, we’re looking at a windy, moderate sized increase in W/SW-SW swell (most likely Friday afternoon/Saturday) under westerly winds. Check back here next week for the finer details though and have a great weekend!