Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swells Tues/Wed 
• S swell pulse Thurs
• Stronger S swell building Fri PM, peaking Sat
• Easing S swells Sun
• More small S swell next week

Recap

Small S swells to 2ft at S facing beaches on Sat, easing right back to tiny on Sun with light winds. Today is seeing more small surf with just a minor NE windswell developing under mod/fresh N’ly winds before the next front brings a W tending W/SW flow.

This week and next week (May13- May24)

A low which formed off the NSW Central Coast yesterday is hovering almost due E of Sydney with a small E/NE fetch aimed at NETas. The low is expected to drift off and dissipate as a new high moves in over NSW at a more northerly latitude compared to the recent pattern.  A front passes over the state tonight with more W’ly winds this week. Small swells from this low will ease through the week with some deep polar activity sending more small S swell wrap up the Pipe before a stronger frontal intrusion this weekend brings a sizier S swell with plenty of S wind. 

In the short run small surf tomorrow with E/NE swell to 1-2ft and offshore W/SW tending W/NW winds. 

Similar winds for Wed with minor levels of S swell wrap and small E/NE swell to 1 occ. 2ft as the low drifts away.

We’ll see a stronger S swell from a broad fetch of gales passing under the state Wed (see below), with Thurs seeing S swell build into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches under W -W/NW winds.

A much stronger and more aggressive frontal intrusion Fri looks to see S swell spike in the a’noon with tiny surf building rapidly into the evening. We’ll pencil in size building to 3-5ft in the a’noon for now and dial in specifics on Wed.

Front brings a spike in S swell later Fri into the weekend

Size should increase further into Sat as a deep fetch forms, possibly forming a surface low off the NSW coast. Fresh SW-S winds and S swell to 5-6ft is expected. 

Sunday should see easing swells from the south.

Into next week and more S swells are on the radar, as fronts pass into the Tasman.

At the moment model divergence leads to low confidence in specifics so lets see how it’s shaping up on Wed.