South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Long range E swells offering an inconsistent pulsey signal through Fri/Sat
• Sizey S/SE swells Sat with light morning winds tending N/NE in the a’noon and freshening
• Easing swells Sun with light morning winds and N’lies freshening
• Building NE windswells Mon under fresh NE winds, biggest on MNC
• Small E swells likely Mon/Tues
• Building S swells across NENSW Tues PM, smaller later increase in SEQLD
• Sizey S swell across NENSW Xmas Day, smaller in SEQLD with S’ly winds
• Easing S swells Boxing Day with light winds tending N/NE in the a'noon
• Building NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, favouring MNC for size
• Quiet from next weekend and into the end of 2024

Recap

Strong S’ly winds hampered wave quality yesterday with around 3-4ft of S swell in the water across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. This morning we are seeing cleaner conditions as pressure gradient ease and land breezes develop before mod S’lies kick back in. Still a little bit of leftover bump around but a few workable options across the board with 3-4ft of S-S/SE swell in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. A late kick is expected across the North Coast. Small long range E swell is supplying the (very)occ. 2-3ft set. 

A bit of size getting into swell magnet on the border

This weekend (Dec21-22)

Still looking good for Sat. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows a Tasman low with a long fetch of strong S-S/SE winds well positioned in the swell window. Concurrently, weak high pressure is moving NE to be off the sub-tropical coast o/night and into tomorrow morning. That will see light winds establish with morning land breezes and light/variable a’noon seabreezes. This a’noon’s increase should boost further o/night with good quality, mid-period S/SE swell to 3-5ft tomorrow morning, easing back a notch late in the day.

There’ll be some inconsistent E’ly energy in the water to 2 occ. 3ft but very few and far between.

Easing swells continue through Sunday. Leftover S/SE-SE swell should hold some 2-3ft surf at open beaches in the morning, dropping back to 2ft through the a’noon. Winds deteriorate surf quality fairly quickly through the day. A light NW-W flow in the morning is likely to tend light/variable before a’noon N/NE breezes establish and begin to freshen through the second half of the a’noon, making a mess of everywhere except a few sheltered backbeaches.

Next week (Dec23 onwards)

We are getting good model agreement on the Xmas week now, leading to increasing confidence on outcomes. O/night Sun into Mon we’ll see a low form off the Gippsland Coast and begin to deepen rapidly through the morning. An early NW’ly flow tends N’ly and begins to freshen by start of business hours. We’ll see a small blend of SE swell to 2ft and developing NE windswell with areas across the MNC seeing the most size develop, up into the 3-4ft range, smaller north of Yamba. A trough moving up the coast brings a fresh S’ly change reaching the MNC mid/late a’noon and the border just after dark.

By Xmas Eve we are expecting a deep ( approx. 980 hPa) cut-off low in the Tasman, due east of Tasmania. A steeply angled due S swell will build in across the region, mixed with short range S swell from the proximate S’ly winds. Expect size to build in from 2-3ft to 3-4ft across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Quality may be hard to find under fresh S-S/SE winds and expect much less size getting into the North facing Points. A small amount of E’ly swell from a weak, monsoonal low tracking through the Coral Sea should add some 2ft sets from the E/NE into the mix. 

Current modelling has the low slow moving through Xmas Eve with a thick fetch of SW-S strong winds to low end gales. That should see surf build several notches more into Xmas Day, with size to 4-6ft across NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Lighter SW winds inshore early tend to mod S/SE winds. Should be plenty of good, solid surf on Xmas Day across NENSW, smaller in SEQLD,  as long as you can find somewhere handling the swell direction and wind.

A fairly rapid easing into Boxing Day as the low weakens and moves NE. Still some sets to 3-4ft across NENSW, dropping back to 2-3ft during the day. Winds will tend N/NE and freshen during the day with light NW breezes for the morning.

An approaching cut-off low sees NE winds freshen Fri with a corresponding increase in NE windswell expected, focussed on the MNC. We should see N/NE winds freshen and tend N’ly with NE windswells building to 3-4ft later in the day. A trough bringing a S’ly change looks to arrive after dark or on Sat, but we’ll finesse that on Mon.

Plenty of NE windswell Sat morning then easing swells then over next weekend, as the cut-off low gets shunted southwards and high pressure moves into the Tasman. Looks like a quiet run into the New Year from there.

We’ll see how that all looks on Mon. 

Seeya then and have a great weekend!