A storm force polar low is better aimed at Pacific targets but we’ll still see some long period S groundswell from it this weekend, with the proviso that S’ly winds will remain persistent.
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A strong frontal progression will bring S’ly groundswell during the week. Later fronts in the far southern/central Tasman remain strong and although better aimed at Pacific targets we’ll still see some significant sideband S’ly energy from them.
By Tues we’ll see a powerful front sweep past the state with a zonal fetch. We’ll see some small S swell wrap to 2-3ft at S facing beaches Tues.
Windy S swells continue into Wed as another major high well south of the Bight shifts E and a series of fronts sweeps across the lower Tasman.
Stronger S swell on offer for Thurs as a trailing fetch slingshots into the Tasman on an already active sea state.
Further ahead and things look juicier later next week as a strong cold front sweeps in and conjoins with an area of low pressure exiting the Gippsland coast.
Into the weekend and we will see conditions improve as a high moves to the north of the island and fronts to the south bring about westerly ridging.
More S groundswell expected next week, with a renewal in S swell Tues from a deep low passing under Tas later Sun into Mon.
Under this sharp trough in the jet stream, as Craig pointed out, strong polar fronts are being steered NE below the Tasman, with long period S swells wrapping into the East Coast of Tasmania.
Strong frontal activity to the south tied to slow moving and complex polar lows is better aimed at NZ and South Pacific targets but plenty of refraction and sideband southerly energy is expected to make landfall in addition to the Tasman low swell this week and into the weekend.