A much stronger intensification of the fetch occurs Wed, as strong to low end gale NE winds develop off Bass Strait, extending up off the Gippsland Coast.
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No change to the headline feature: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now occurring out of Bass Strait through the early afternoon and severe gales expected to form adjacent to the East Coast overnight.
The weekend looks more reliable as the low moves away during Sat, with gales to severe gales on the western flank of the low generating another strong pulse of S swell for Sat. Expect surf in the 3-5ft range during Sat, with fresh W’ly quarter winds during the day.
The current synoptic pattern is a low pressure system E of Tasmania directing a fetch of SSW to S strong winds to low end gales adjacent to the NSW South Coast and extending south-east of Tasmania. This low then eases as it moves out into the Tasman sea later today.
A dynamic weekend is ahead as a robust Tasman low forms near the Island overnight Sat.
Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad fetch of E to ESE’ly winds feeding into the small low east of Tasmania, with another weak low centre off the NSW Mid North Coast also providing a weak E’ly fetch.
A trough in the Tasman off the NSW coast deepens into a small, surface low through Tuesday. Compared to model runs on Friday, this slow moving low is now positioned further south, in a more favourable position for swell generation for the East Coast of Tas.
NE windswell is on the way out through tomorrow as the fetch gets shunted eastwards and away from the swell window but a complex cut-off low quickly replaces that swell with chunky short range S swell as it tracks just to the East of Tasmania and brings strong to gale force SSW to S winds.
Intensifying pressure gradients between a 1025 hPa high East of Tasmania and an approaching complex mid-latitude cut-off low is seeing N to NE winds begin to freshen across Bass Strait tonight.
High pressure drifts across the Tasman from a position in Tasmanian latitudes this week. An approaching mid-latitude low in the Bight tightens the the pressure gradient along the western flank of the high in the Tasman, with an increase in N to NE winds off NSW coast through Wed. It’s Thursday and Friday that really muscle up with gales aimed directly at NETas.