Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 27)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small/marginal NE windswell likely Thurs/Fri
• Another robust S swell peaking Sat as low forms E of the state with offshore winds
• NE windswell building Tues, peaking Wed AM at solid levels before easing

Recap

Strong S swell from a slow moving Tasman low has supplied 3-5ft surf through yesterday with light S’ly winds. That swell has eased back into the 2-3ft range through today as the low moved east and dissipated. Conditions have been clean today with light NW winds.

This week and next week (Oct25-Nov 5)

Not much change for the rest of the week’s f/cast. As outlined on Mon high pressure drifts into the NE Tasman Sea, directing a weak NE flow towards the East coast of Tasmania which is unlikely to produce any meaningful surf. Just a foot or two at most through Thurs.

Friday sees a complex low and frontal system approach from the West, with a surface low forming near Tasmania in a trough line. There’s still some uncertainty over the position of that low as it forms during Fri with some models placing it to the SE, with SE winds during Fri generating a quick rise in local SE windswell. If it delays or forms to the south then winds will tend more W through the day and surf will be flat.

The weekend looks more reliable as the low moves away during Sat, with gales to severe gales on the western flank of the low generating another strong pulse of S swell for Sat. Expect surf in the 3-5ft range during Sat, with fresh W’ly quarter winds during the day.

This swell source fades away rapidly during Sun as the low gets shunted SE away from the Island. Expect 2-3ft surf early, easing to the 1ft range during the day.

NE windswell building Tues:  A strong high (1030hPa) in the central Tasman sea next week begins to direct fresh N’ly winds down the pipe through Tuesday, with a fetch aimed into the NETas swell window. That will see a late kick in NE windswell through Tues PM, with fresh N’ly winds expected.

Wed looks even bigger with size in the 4-5ft range expected as a peak during the morning before the fetch gets shunted Eastwards and surf eases through the day. With so much instability and dynamism in the Tasman we may need to revisit timing and size on Fri. 

Longer term and models are divergent through the end of next week with a suggestion of a trough forming off the Gippsland coast and generating a new round of SE swell for the East Coast.  We’ll flag that for now and revisit in Fridays f/cast notes as the situation becomes more clear.

Check back then for a fresh and full update.