Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 18)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small SE swell Tues as trough/low forms near Tasmania
• E swell builds Wed with onshore winds
• Stronger ENE swell Thurs, peaks Fri with improving winds
• ENE swell easing through Sat
• Strong S swell likely Sun, as low forms East of Tasmania, slowly easing Mon

Recap

Plenty of strong S swell on offer through the weekend, biggest on Sat as a strong low drifted close to the state. Size was in the 3-5ft range on Sat, easing through Sun and it’s dropped right off through today to be in the 1ft range. 

This week and weekend (Oct18-Oct 24)

Well positioned Tasman low supplies pulsey E swell for most of the week:  A trough in the Tasman off the NSW coast deepens into a small, surface low through Tuesday.

Compared to model runs on Friday, this slow moving low is now positioned further south, in a more favourable position for swell generation for the East Coast of Tas. 

The initial trough pushes off the Gippsland coast tomorrow with ESE winds adjacent to the East Coast. This is likely to see short range SE swell build in with SE winds into the 3ft range. 

Onshore E/SE to E/NE winds continue through Wed, with the proximate fetch of ESE winds maintaining 3ft of ESE short period peaky swell during the day. 

The low maintains the E’ly fetch through the week, with current modelling showing a slight retrograde movement through Thursday and a subsequent small increase in E to ENE swell through Thursday up into the 3-4ft range. This size is likely to boost another notch into Fri before settling down into the weekend. 

Winds look to improve during  Fri with the onshore pattern being replaced by light and variable breezes that should offer plenty of fun, peaky options on the beachbreaks.

Leftovers from the E keep surf at a fun size through Sat, with an improving offshore wind as a trough and front approach.

Large S swell Sun :Models are now showing the development of yet another surface low just to the East of Tasmania late Sat as a strong front pushes over the state. This low energises a deep fetch of SSW to S winds adjacent to Tasmania and extending south to 50S. This is likely to see fresh S’ly winds develop through Sun with surf building into the 6ft range. The low remains slow moving into early next week, suggesting a slow roll off in S swell through Mon, before high pressure approaches the state , suggesting a period of small/tiny surf to end next week, with a possibility of more NE windswell next weekend as the high moves East of Tasmania.

We’ll check out that possibility and re-check this week on Wed, so check in then.