Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 22)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• ENE swell easing through Sat
• Strong S swell likely Sun, peaking Mon at large size as low forms East of Tasmania, peaking Mon with strong S'ly winds, easing Mon
• E’ly groundswell in the mix Sun/Mon, easing Tues
• Small NE windswell likely Thurs/Fri

Recap

A weak, lingering low in the Tasman off the NSW South Coast has supplied a steady source of E/ENE swell in the last 48hrs with size hovering in the 3ft range and a weak onshore flow accompanying it. Size bumped up a notch into the 3-4ft range today with light NE winds scuffing it up. A dynamic weekend is ahead as a robust Tasman low forms near the Island overnight Sat. Read on for details.

This weekend and next week (Oct23-Oct 31)

Tomorrow sees easing surf from the E, generated by a persistent Tasman low. Early NW winds should be favourable before a S change during the day, mild at first, then freshening during the a’noon as a trough and front cross the state. 

Sunday is then under the regime of fresh/strong S’ly winds as a low forms to the East of the state. 

There’ll be plenty of swell in the water. Both increasing S swell from the proximate fetch of S’ly gales to the East Coast and E’ly groundswell, building into the 3-4ft range. If you can get out of the wind on Sunday there’ll be options on the table.

Monday is going to be a helluva day with the low slow moving next to Tasmania and gales whipping up a very large storm surf, likely in the 8ft range. Strong to gale force S’ly winds will be accompanying the surf and E’ly groundswell will also be in the mix, with 3-4ft sets, if you can find somewhere out of the wind then there should be surfable options available again.

Swells from both sources then ease through Tuesday with winds abating as the low moves away. Leftover surf from the S in the 4-6ft range will ease back during the day. Some small E’ly swell will also be fading in the mix. 

The second half of the week then quietens right down with the S swell window going dormant. High pressure at sub-tropical latitudes starts to generate a N’ly fetch down the NSW Coast during later Wed, likely seeing some small NE windswell develop through Thursday, although not much size is expected at present. Just a foot or so.

That may boost a notch during Fri into the 2ft range but keep expectations pegged low for now.

Longer term and another front next weekend looks to pass quickly over the state with limited surf potential for the North-East of Tasmania.

More on Monday when we do a fresh and full update.

See you then and have a great weekend.