Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 11)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid NE swell builds Wed, holds into Thurs, peaks Fri with improving winds 
• Solid S swell builds later Sat, peaks Sun as low moves E of Tasmania, eases quickly Mon
• Further NE windswell possible later next week

Recap

Tiny to flat surf over the weekend has continued into today with no major swell energy reported. Lots of swell incoming this week though, some of it large. Read on for details. 

This week and next week (Oct11-Oct 22)

Solid NE swell this week.  High pressure drifts across the Tasman from a position in Tasmanian latitudes this week. An approaching mid-latitude low in the Bight tightens the the pressure gradient along the western flank of the high in the Tasman, with an increase in N to NE winds off NSW coast through Wed. It’s quite a chunky, broad fetch, initially located in Bass Strait and then extending Northwards adjacent to the NSW coast. Surf from this source is expected to begin showing Wed, with size building into the 3ft range during the a’noon. 

It’s Thursday and Friday that really muscle up with gales aimed directly at NETas and surf building into the 6-8ft range during Thursday. Winds will still be from the NE during Thursday, so some spot selection may be required.

Friday holds in the morning with solid 8ft surf, easing during the day. As the low approaches Tasmania winds should swing more NW, possibly even WNW depending on the final position of the low. That offers a window of potentially good to great surf through Friday. 

Major S swell this weekend. The low pressure system approaching Tasmania Friday pushes East of the state on Sat, with major surf potential. Leftover NE swell holds size in the 4ft range Sat morning with winds and swell turning strong S to SSE during the day.

That sees a new increase chunky S swell into the 3-4ft range later Sat.

Proximate S’ly gales overnight Sat should see large surf from the S during Sun, with size in the 8ft range, easing back a notch during the day. Fresh S to SSW winds should lay down and tend more WSW as the low moves away during Sunday. Sunday is not for the faint-hearted.

Size then eases right down during Mon with wave heights quickly settling into the 3-4ft range, before easing further during the day and light winds expected.

Further ahead and small levels of S swell are expected Tues and Wed from a zonal front passing well to the south. 

There’s potential for further NE windswell later next week as high pressure drifts towards New Zealand and northerly winds once again establish off the NSW South Coast. 

Thats a long way away and with such a mobile, unstable pattern serious revision is likely Wed and Fri for the medium term.

Check back Wed for a full update.