Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct 25)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S swell easing Tues, with S'ly winds abating, cleaner leftovers Wed
• Small/marginal NE windswell likely Thurs/Fri
• Another robust S swell likely to build Fri, peak Sat as low forms E of the state

Recap

Tiny surf on Saturday was replaced by building S swells on Sun as a Tasman low wound up just East of the Island. Gales and severe gales east of the Island, sling-shooting around the low have seen surf build into the 8-10ft range at S facing beaches today, with S’ly winds now beginning to moderate as the low moves away and eases.

This week and weekend (Oct25-Oct 31)

In a sense this week’s f/cast is quite straightforwards and clear cut (for a change!). The current synoptic pattern is a low pressure system E of Tasmania directing a fetch of SSW to S strong winds to low end gales adjacent to the NSW South Coast. This low then eases as it moves out into the Tasman sea later today. As it does, we’ll be left with an easing signature of S swell, which will drop off quickly through Tuesday, before a few days of small NE windswell before another low is expected into the Tasman this weekend generating another round of S swell.

In addition we have some leftover E swell from the fetch near the North Island over the weekend, which has now dissipated.

That sees 4-5ft of S swell through tomorrow morning , easing back during the day with S’ly winds easing through the day. 

Leftover S swell should hold some 2-3ft surf through Wed AM, with winds tending N’ly through the day before that source drops right away to tiny levels.

The rest of the working week sees small levels of NE windswell as a disjointed N’ly fetch off the NSW coast supplies a weak signal. Likely not exceeding 2ft as it peaks through Thursday.

Friday sees a trough line deepen E of the Island, with a developing S’ly infeed into the trough brining increased levels of S swell through the day, likely building into the 3ft range as onshore S to SE winds freshen. 

That trough deepens into another surface low overnight Fri/early Sat generating another round of strong, local S swell through Sat, potentially building back into the 5-6ft range during the day.

Modelling shows the low moving away from the Island during Sun, with winds and swell easing through the day, with easing surf cleaned up by another front bringing fresh W to WNW winds.

Longer term and another round of NE windswell is possible mid next week as high pressure in the Tasman drifts E and N’ly winds develop in the Eastern Tas swell window off the NSW Coast.

With the current instability in the Tasman, anything into next week is the subject of low confidence.

Check back Wed for a fresh and full update.