Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct 13)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid NE swell builds Wed, holds into Thurs, peaks Fri with improving winds 
• Modest S swell builds later Sat, peaks Sun as low moves E of Tasmania, eases quickly Mon
• Small S swell Mon
• Further NE windswell possible later next week

Recap

Still not much surf to report from the NE Coast with only minor levels of 1-2ft swell maintaining marginal conditions. That is about to change over the next couple of days. Read on for details.

This week and next week (Oct11-Oct 22)

Solid NE swell still on track for this week.  Intensifying pressure gradients between a 1025 hPa high East of Tasmania and an approaching complex mid-latitude cut-off low is seeing N to NE winds begin to freshen across Bass Strait tonight. That will see building NE windswell through tomorrow as the fetch extends up the coast of NSW and out into the Tasman Sea. 

Expect surf to start a little under-sized in the 3-4ft range, building into the 4-6ft range by close of play. Winds will be an issue, with mod/fresh ENE winds making it hard to find a clean wave.

NE windswell peaks Fri morning with solid 6ft surf at E facing beaches. Winds are still a problem, although a bit flukey due to the position of the cut-off low as it approaches Tasmania on Friday. Expect winds from the NE to E/NE, possibly shifting SE during the day depending on the position of the low.

Saturday sees easing surf from the NE, with 4ft sets, dropping back to the 3-4ft range and winds tending S to SE as the low drifts E of Tasmania. 

S swell on the weekend gets a downgrade. Current modelling shows the cut-off low moving E of Tasmania during Fri and into Sat, but without the long fetch aimed at Tasmania’s East Coast. 

A more compact, proximate fetch of S’ly winds along the East Coast developing during Sat is expected to see a more modest, local increase in S swell during the day up into the 3ft range, building further into the 4ft range during Sun, with improving winds as the low moves away and winds tend SW to W. 

Another small cold front in advance of a major high moving well to the south of Tasmania brings a small increase in S swell Mon, up into the 2-3ft range.

Longer term and NE winds developing off the back of a large high through Wed/Thurs next week should see another round of NE winds swell Thurs. This fetch is much more constrained than the upcoming one so size will be several notches below the one expected this week.

A trough and low drifting south in the Tasman Sea later next week has potential to send ENE swell to the East Coast into next weekend. 

With so much model uncertainty we’ll just flag that for now and come back in on Fri and take a fresh look.

See you then.