Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 15)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell fades out Sat
• Strong S swell builds Sat with fresh SSW winds, holds Sun AM with better winds before easing.
• Small S swell Tues
• NE windswell Fri
• Better quality ENE swell likely Fri/Sat, stronger pulse Sun

Recap

NE windswell has filled in since Wed, with Thursday seeing solid surf in the 4-5ft range, bigger 5-6ft through today, with winds laying down and tending more NW. There’s plenty of activity expected for the weekend, details below. 

This weekend and next week (Oct16-Oct 22)

NE windswell is on the way out through tomorrow as the fetch gets shunted eastwards and away from the swell window but a complex cut-off low quickly replaces that swell with chunky short range S swell as it tracks just to the East of Tasmania and brings strong to gale force SSW to S winds.

That will see winds and swell rapidly increase on Sat as a proximate fetch quickly whips up S swell. Expect size to build into the 4-6ft range through the day on Sat. Winds will be an issue being from the SSW so you’ll need to seek protection. 

Conditions improve rapidly through Sun, as the low moves away and winds tend light WSW to NW. Early morning size in the 4-5ft range eases back quickly as the fetch quickly moves out of the swell window. 

A front and new high pressure ridge building in behind it sees surf rising into the 2-3ft range on Tues but winds will be from the SE, hampering surface conditions. 

The pattern then becomes slow moving as a summer-style blocking high in the lower Tasman takes up residence. This has surf implications for NETas as a trough along the northern flank of the high energises a fetch of E’ly winds in the Central Tasman. More proximate NE winds adjacent to the NSW South Coast are also expected to generate NE windswell for Tasmania in the same period.

Under current modelling this fetch is located far enough south to generate useful E/ENE swell for the East Coast. Swell should build into the 4ft range from this source and the more proximate fetch during Fri and hold into Sat. Light winds look likely at this stage.

Sunday next week looks even better, with the fetch intensifying and moving southwards as a trough of low pressure near the North Island tightens pressure gradients along a broad flank of the high. 

That should see solid surf in the 4-6ft range during Sun, with light E’ly winds expected. 

Longer term and further troughiness and low pressure development near Tasmania is likely to lead to more close range swells.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend.