A much more solid swell event then unfolds through the second half of next week , with a high pressure system drifting in the lower Tasman towards the South Island and a strong N’ly fetch developing off the back of the high, with pressure gradients being tightened by an approaching mid-latitude low in the Bight.
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Things get more interesting next week, as instability in the Tasman sea leads to some surf potential for the East coast of Tas.
The low near the South Island has had a fetch of ESE winds towards Tasmania, not ideally aligned but radial spread from the source fetch should see surf in the fun size range through Tuesday.
An inland low and offshore trough are generating a mix of NE winds and more proximate E’ly winds both in the Eastern Tas swell window. Onshore winds have been associated with the approaching low.
Still on track for some large, windy surf for the NE coast as an approaching low pressure system focusses an infeed of E’ly winds onto the coast and an associated NE fetch in the Tasman, adjacent to the NSW coast sends NE swell towards Tasmania.
Tempestuous, windy week ahead for the region with a dominant high moving NE into the Tasman, generating NE windswell before an inland low approaches and brings strong onshore winds and large seas and swell.
A deep low just to the SW of Tasmania with a strong front attached is expected to transit into the Tasman sea through tomorrow with gales adjacent to Tasmania generating a steep increase in S swell through the a’noon.
Pressure gradients tighten on Tuesday as a cut-off mid-latitude low in the Bight approaches, with N’ly winds starting to freshen along the NSW South Coast and adjacent waters. This N’ly fetch is expected to be a useful swell source for NETas.
A wintry pattern is on offer this week, with a stack of intense frontal activity impacting Tasmania and a deep, complex semi-stalled Polar low providing refracted S swell pulses through the week.
A better angled fetch associated with a frontal fetch moving NE into the Tasman later Mon into Tuesday sees surf build into the 3ft range at S exposed spots with early SW winds from the front turning WNW as it passes by.