Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov1)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell building Tues, peaking Wed at solid levels before easing Thurs
• NE windswell Thurs AM, overlapped by new S swell as trough/low forms near Tasmania
• Another round of solid NE windswell, building Sat, peaking Sun morning before easing into Mon

Recap

Solid S swell from a storm force low just east of the Island was on offer Saturday with size in the 3-5ft range and improving conditions as light winds became established as the low moved quickly away from the Island. Surf dropped rapidly into Sunday with only tiny waves on offer and that has continued into today with only a weak 1ft wave lapping on the shore.

This week and next week (Nov1-12)

A large (1025 hPa) high pressure system is currently drifting over Central NSW into the Tasman sea and this high pressure cell is expected to track SE, strengthen and  become slow moving as it meanders near the South Island for most of this week. That creates a summer-style synoptic pattern, with SE/ESE Tradewinds through the sub-tropics and a N’ly flow through temperate NSW and down into Bass Strait.

This N’ly flow is expected to generate a couple of useful pulses of solid NE windswell for NETas this week. 

By Tuesday the N’ly flow will begin freshening down the South Coast, seeing an uptick in NE windswell into the 1-2ft range, with mod/fresh NE winds along the coast.

A much stronger intensification of the fetch occurs Wed, as strong to low end gale NE winds develop off Bass Strait, extending up off the Gippsland Coast. This sees NE windswell building into the 3-5ft range Wed, easing back Thursday as the fetch contracts Eastwards. You’ll have too deal with fresh N’ly winds through Wed.

A small trough brings a SW to S change Thurs, offering a window of cleaner conditions early before a small S’ly windswell kicks up Thurs a’noon.

That temporarily disables the NE flow down the Western Tasman Sea, before a reinforcing high slips into the lower Tasman Fri, behind the trough on Thursday.

That quickly re-energises the N’ly flow down the South Coast and into Bass Strait into Sat, seeing surf from the NE build from 2ft to 3-4ft during the day with fresh NNE winds accompanying the swell.

Sun looks even bigger as the fetch matures seeing 3-5ft surf early, before it eases off during the a’noon. Another approaching trough sees winds tend NW or even W during the day.

Longer term and surf looks to go tiny again after this weekend, possibly kicking back in from the SE by mid next week if a trough forms in a favourable position. At the moment models are unsure about the development and position of a trough so get the NE swells this week, as they are a much surer bet.

Check back Wed for a full update.