Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct 29)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another robust S swell peaking Sat AM as low forms E of the state with offshore winds, easing and tending variable in the a'noon
• NE windswell building Tues, peaking Wed at solid levels before easing
• NE windswell Thurs AM, overlapped by new S swell as trough/low forms near Tasmania

Recap

Not much swell energy in the last 48hrs with only marginal levels of NE windswell being recorded. A storm force low is now developing close to Tasmania and this will lead to a rapid rise in S swell over the next 12-24 hrs, along with gale/storm force SW winds. Buckle up.

This weekend and next week (Oct29-Nov 5)

No change to the headline feature: another robust low forming in a trough line East of Tasmania. It does seem to be running early, with gales to storm force winds now occurring out of Bass Strait through the early afternoon and severe gales expected to form adjacent to the East Coast overnight.

Severe gales quickly whip up close range S swell overnight but due to the earlier formation of the low and the rapid movement of the low away from the coast during Sat, this swell is expected to ease quite quickly during the day. Expect size in the 5-6ft range during the morning, easing back during the day. Morning winds from the SW should be fresh and gusty before they tend NW/SW and then lay down to variable breezes during the a’noon as pressure gradients ease. 

Small leftovers Sun will be quickly ironed out by trailing W’ly winds, offering some clean and small options in the 2ft range before it declines to tiny levels.

High pressure moves into the Central Tasman during the week and the western flank of the high develops a fetch adjacent to the NSW South Coast, extending down into Bass Strait and adjacent to the East Coast during Wed. That is likely to see chunky NE windswell building during the day, with size in the 2-3ft range in the morning , building into the 3-5ft range during the a’noon. Expect mod/fresh N to NNE winds to accompany this swell.

A rapid turn around occurs during Thurs, as leftover NE windswell in the 4ft range is quickly over-lapped by a fast developing S swell, as a trough and potential surface low forms just to the SE of the Island. With another round of gales next to the East Coast it’s likely we’ll see surf build into the 3-5ft range during the a’noon, but we’ll really need some more model guidance as we get closer to this outcome to see how it plays out. 

Longer term and high pressure is likely to rebuild NE winds through the Southern Tasman adjacent to Tasmania into next weekend suggesting another round of NE windswell by next weekend. Long range forecast are subject to low confidence and serious revision so check back in on Mon for a fresh update and have a great weekend.