South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building NE windswells Mon under fresh NE winds, biggest on MNC
• Small E swells likely Mon/Tues across SEQLD
• Building S swells across NENSW Tues, smaller later increase in SEQLD
• Sizey S swell across NENSW Xmas Day, smaller in SEQLD with S’ly winds
• Morning peak then easing S swells Boxing Day with light winds tending N/NE in the a'noon
• Building NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, favouring MNC for size
• Quiet from next weekend and into the end of 2024

Recap

Good surf Sat with clean 3-5ft surf across NENSW magnets, 3-4ft at SEQLD swell magnets on the Gold Coast, a notch smaller on the Sunny Coast , under light morning land breezes and a’noon NE breezes. Size eased back into Sun with some 2 (occ.3)ft leftovers, with quality hampered by a N’ly tending NE flow. NE dribble today under fresh N-N/NE winds. A S’ly change is due in to Coffs early this evening, o/night across the North Coast and across the border early AM.

Solid sets on Sat morning

This week (Dec 23-27)

A cold front currently pushing into the Tasman spawns a low pressure system, expected to rapidly deepen later today and o/night before becoming slow moving in the south-central Tasman. A weak monsoonal low in the Coral Sea is drifting towards New Caledonia and weakening. A trough is moving northwards bringing a S’ly change to the sub-tropics o/night. Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman tomorrow, bringing moderating  winds and settled conditions for Xmas and Boxing Day.

In the short run, we’ll see the trough and proximate S-S/SE winds bring a rapid spike in new short range S swell through tomorrow, building to 3-4ft across NENSW at first and then extending into SEQLD. Fresh S-S/SE winds will limit surfing to protected points and Bays where surf will be much smaller. There will be some minor E/NE swell to 2ft from the monsoonal low, favouring SEQLD. 

Looking good for Xmas Day with mod SW winds tending to mod/fresh S’lies before winds ease in the a’noon. Solid, directional S swell will be up in the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. 

Easing swells for Boxing Day and with high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see light winds tend to light seabreezes. Light W-SW breezes early will open up most spots and we’ll see 3-4ft of S swell (few 5ft sets)- smaller in SEQLD- for the early, easing during the day.

 By Fri expect a mod/fresh NE flow with NE windswell sidewinders getting into open beaches for the arvo session. These may reach 2-3ft under optimistic scenarios, favouring the MNC. 

This weekend (Dec28-29)

A trough brings S-S/SE winds through Sat, likely in across the region before dawn on the MNC, early morning to the border. Expect low quality surf, with minor NE windswell leftovers to 2ft and some short range S-S/SE swell likely filling in behind the change from local winds feeding into the trough. No great size or quality expected, with surf building to 2-3ft.

Not much for Sun as the trough moves away quickly leaving a light onshore flow and small surf to 1-2ft, offering a grovel or small waves suitable for beginners.

Next week (Dec30 onwards)

Looks like a quiet end to 2024 with weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral seas. We’ll pencil in light winds and tiny surf to 1-2ft or less to pad out the old year.

The Tasman sea continues to be soupy with above average SST’s and continuing troughy low pressure into the new Year. There is some model guidance from EC suggesting a broad surface low forming in the Tasman first week of the New Year which under the best case scenario could generate some sizey S-S/SE swell. No interest in this scenario from GFS so we’ll flag it as a low confidence call and see how things look when we come back Xmas Day.

Seeya then.