Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Dynamic outlook for Xmas week
• Deep low forming in Tasman off Gippsland Coast Mon with a sizey S swell developing Xmas Eve
• Sizey S swells Xmas Day with light winds tending to E-NE seabreezes in the a’noon
• Easing swells Boxing Day
• NE windswell likely Fri next week
• Easing swells into next weekend and a quiet end to 2024
• Tracking possible low pressure in the Tasman 1st week of 2025- low confidence in outcomes so check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Pumping surf Sat with clean 3-5ft surf from the S/SE across a wide swathe of the region, under light morning land breezes and a’noon NE breezes. Size eased back into Sun with some 2 (occ.3)ft leftovers, with quality hampered by a S’ly tending SE-E flow. A few small peaks on offer this morning with a blend of SE and NE swells to 2ft, clean under light morning land breezes with a vigorous S’ly change expected by lunch-time and winds tending SE in the a’noon. 

Solid and clean Sat morning

This week (Dec 23-27)

A cold front currently pushing into the Tasman spawns a low pressure system, expected to rapidly deepen later today and o/night before moving slowly in the south-central Tasman. A weak monsoonal low in the Coral Sea is drifting towards New Caledonia and weakening. Weak high pressure moves into the Tasman tomorrow, bringing moderating  winds and settled conditions for Xmas and Boxing Day.

In the short run, we’ll see a wintry type of pattern develop with mod SW winds tending S/SW-S then S-S/SE as a low moves east of Tasmania. A first pulse of directional S swell offers surf to 4-6ft at S facing beaches, smaller in more sheltered locations. There are some longer period swell trains expected in the a’noon which could add extra energy into more sheltered locations, which will be smaller through the day.

Looking good for Xmas Day with light SW winds tending to light/variable breezes then E’ly seabreezes in the a’noon. Solid, directional S swell will be up in the 5-6ft range at S facing beaches, bigger at S facing bommies and basically clean all day, or with just a light onshore ruffle on it. Looking good for a double, if Santa permits, although we’ll see an easing trend set in through the a’noon. 

Easing swells for Boxing Day and with high pressure moving NE into the Tasman we’ll see winds shift N-NE and freshen. Light NW breezes early will favour S facing beaches and we’ll see 3-4ft of S swell (few 5ft sets) for the early, easing during the day. By the a’noon expect a mod/fresh NE flow with NE windswell sidewinders getting into open beaches for the arvo session. These may reach 2-3ft under optimistic scenarios. A trough moving up the coast may bring a later swing in winds to the NW, we’ll update that through the week. 

This weekend (Dec28-29)

A trough brings S-S/SE winds through Sat, likely in across the region before dawn. Expect low quality surf, with minor NE windswell leftovers to 2ft and some short range S-S/SE swell likely filling in behind the change from local winds feeding into the trough. No great size or quality expected, with surf building to 2-3ft.

Not much for Sun as the trough moves away quickly leaving a light onshore flow and small surf to 1-2ft, offering a grovel or small waves suitable for beginners.

Next week (Dec30 onwards)

Looks like a quiet end to 2024 with weak pressure gradients in the Tasman and Coral seas. We’ll pencil in light winds and tiny surf to 1-2ft or less to pad out the old year.

The Tasman sea continues to be soupy with above average SST’s and continuing troughy low pressure into the new Year. There is some model guidance from EC suggesting a broad surface low forming in the Tasman first week of the New Year which under the best case scenario could generate some sizey S-S/SE swell. No interest in this scenario from GFS so we’ll flag it as a low confidence call and see how things look when we come back Xmas Day.

Seeya then.