A much stronger change on Sat looks to form a low in the Central/Northern Tasman with a more substantial swell increase also being generated by a deep polar low transiting the Tasman.
Primary tabs
A weak N/NE windswell will stop the coast going flat but next weekend looks more promising for surf.
Into the medium term and a series of deep lows and fronts amassed in the Southern Ocean look to send some small, long period refracted S swell to Tas towards the end of next week. No great size is expected due to the swell direction, so expect some 2ft days to bring in the first days of Spring.
We’ll monitor those precursor building blocks for another round of E swell in the medium/long term but for now, it’s the Tasman Sea that has most of the action, with small S swell pulses expected this week.
The incoming E/NE groundswell has come in nicely across NSW though a touch delayed. The weekend should be really fun.
Building surf this period out of the E/NE with a prolonged but inconsistent event.
A deep low just to the East of Tasmania is now slowly weakening and moving away, maintaining a westerly flow across the region. A trough line linked to the low extends from the Tasman Sea up into the Coral Sea past New Caledonia and over the next few days this trough deepens as it slowly moves East, activating an incredibly wide fetch of E to NE winds infeeding into it.
The low will approach Tasmania over the weekend with a strong E’ly infeed expected to generate large surf. Models now show much less size as the fetch is not directly aimed at Tasmania and not as powerful as Wed’s notes indicated. We’re still looking at solid surf through from Sun into next week!
There’s still some model divergence on the position of the low on Sun, and a fetch of strong winds on the southern flank of the low. Either way we’ll see large storm surf from the SE to ESE develop, in conjunction with building NE swell.
Several juicy fetches will send swell across the Tasman this week with a low moving E of Bass Strait on the weekend expected to see large storm surf develop.