We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. The Cook Strait fetch will produce some fun waves for East Tasmania.
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Today's large SE groundswell will ease over the weekend, with some weaker, smaller east swells to follow.
The Southern Ocean gyre is now well to the S and SE of the South Island, generating one last pulse of long period swell for our region.
The Southern Gyre then sends one more pulse of SE groundswell our way later in the week.
Sunday is a different story as storm force winds sweep past the state, bringing a S swell much larger than anything seen so far.
Sunday is a different story. The most powerful front in the series sweeps up past the state with severe gale to storm force winds sling-shotting around the parent low.
High pressure support along an elongated front and another deep low pressure gyre forming well South-east of the South Island super-charge a deep southern fetch Fri into Sat with an area of 20ft seas sling-shotting agressively North-east into the Tasman Sea.
Fading energy into the weekend ahead of building levels of S'ly swell in size and period later next week and weekend.
Brisk south-westerly winds and a complex low pressure gyre in the Tasman Sea, with multiple cold fronts and a deep S’ly fetch of gales extending down to 55S have ushered in the first day of Winter.
That system will drive gales across various area of the Tasman Sea, initially out of Bass Strait and adjacent to the Southern NSW Coast, then extending southwards to form a long fetch through the lower Eastern Tasman Sea.