Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 12th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Surf easing Fri with small NE windswell on offer
• Small S/SE swell likely to build late Sat with onshore winds freshening as low approaches the state
• Large surf from the E Sun, holding at large sizes Mon and easing into Tues
• More quality E/NE swell on the radar for later next week
• Low expected to form near Tasmania next weekend, with large swell possible, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Fun E swell on Thursday with sets to 3ft and light NW winds. Today has seen easing swell with size in the 1-2ft range and light NW winds now tending light and variable with a N’ly bias.

This weekend and next week (Aug12 - Aug 19)

No great change expected for the weekend f/cast.  Winds will be dominated by an approaching interior low and trough linked to a NW cloud band (the second since the Indian Ocean Dipole went negative). The low will approach Tasmania over the weekend with a strong E’ly infeed expected to generate large surf. Models now show much less size as the fetch is not directly aimed at Tasmania and not as powerful as Wed’s notes indicated. We’re still looking at solid surf through from Sun into next week!

Not much on offer Sat. Small waves with a developing SSE flow as the low approaches from the W and a series of troughs cross the Island. Expect freshening S to SSE winds and a minor kick in short period S swell later in the day.

Fresh onshore winds from the S/SE to E/NE will be on offer Sunday as the low drifts through Bass Strait. Strong winds infeeding into the low generate a fast rising E’ly swell with initial size in the 3-5ft range building to 6ft+ through the a’noon. 

The fetch contracts on Mon and the low moves over  the island suggesting an easing trend in E/NE swell with a possibility of a rapid improvement in wind conditions through the day, although it will depend on exactly where the low moves to on Mon. Expect plenty of strong 4-6ft E/NE swell Mon and a tricky wind outlook. Possibly SE tending SW through the day or even straight W’ly depending on the low. Keep tabs on your local wind obs through Mon. 

Size eases though Tues with easing 3ft E swell and offshore winds. Definitely a day to look around if the wind doesn’t play ball on Mon.

Small surf is then expected through Wed and Thurs, with a slight uptick in E/NE swell Thurs and offshore winds worth looking around for .

While this is happening a long trough line in the near South Pacific forms and deepens with a wind speeds increasing along a broad front due south of New Caledonia and extending down into the Tasman Sea as they feed into the trough (see below). Strong winds to gales feeding into the fetch through Tues-Thurs are expected to generate quality E/NE swell trains for the region.

That will see a building trend in quality surf Fri, with size getting up into the 4ft range and offshore winds expected as fronts sweep across the state.

Quality swell from the E/NE persists at elevated levels Sat in the 4-5ft range, with winds dependent on the position of a new low expected to form in the Tasman Sea.

That is also likely to see new S to SE swell build, possibly to sizey levels late Sat and into Sun.

It’s too early to have any confidence in specifics there so make sure you check back in on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!