Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/NE swell extends into Wed at low levels
• Small spike in local S swell Thurs, holding Fri morning before easing
• Tiny surf Sat with a bump in NE winds swell Sun
• Small NE windswell Mon
• Small spike in S swell Tues with SW winds
• Not much on offer to end Winter

Recap

Small surf as E/NE swell waned through yesterday with light W’ly winds. Today has seen a small S swell with some 2ft surf at S facing beaches and NW winds, tending SW in the a’noon. 

This week and next week (Aug 24 - Sep2)

The current robust but compact low is driving near gales in a thin fetch adjacent to the Central/Mid North Coast, with a tail of weaker winds extending out into the Central Tasman, with the whole show moving eastwards quickly today. Another, much weaker front, pushes up the coast tomorrow before a large high pressure system moves over Tasmania and  sets up a ridge along the temperate to sub-tropical coast of NSW.

In the short run, tomorrows front generates a brief pulse of S swell in the 2-3ft range, with fresh SW winds quickly easing in the wake of the front. 

Fri sees this S swell rapidly ease back with a few 2ft waves early, easing to 1-2ft during the day and a light/variable flow tending NW through the day.

Into the weekend and not much surf is expected Sat with marginal surf in the 1ft range.

Sunday looks more promising as the high moves out into the Tasman and a N’ly fetch develops off the NSW South Coast. That should see workable levels of NE windswell build to 3ft with biggest surf around lunch-time under freshening N’ly winds. 

It’s just a quick spike in surf with Mon quickly easing off again although models do show the N’ly fetch firing up again down the NSW South Coast which should see another rebuild in NE windswell to 2-3ft Mon a’noon. 

A weak front crosses into the Tasman Tues with a low forming NE of Tas (see below) bringing another round of small S swell as it sweeps up past Tas. At this early stage it looks like another hit of 2-3ft surf with SW winds quickly shunting W in the wake of the front.

Into the medium term and a series of deep lows and fronts amassed in the Southern Ocean look to send some small, long period refracted S swell to Tas towards the end of next week. No great size is expected due to the swell direction, so expect some 2ft days to bring in the first days of Spring.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.