No change to the weekend f/cast. Fronts passing over the state and a dissipating complex low see offshore winds through Sat. We’ll see easing levels of NE swell now that the fetch has been shunted out of the swell window, along with some long range E/NE swell from the South Pacific.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/14/clean-leftover-ne-swell-over-the-weekend
freeride76
Friday, 14 October 2022
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/12/xl-ne-windswell-now-building-offshore-winds-fri
freeride76
Wednesday, 12 October 2022
Closer to home a strong high between Tasmania and the South Island is being squeezed by an approaching trough series, front and cut-off low, which is seeing N to NE gales develop on the Tasmanian East Coast swell window. Large surf with onshore/sideshore gales develops Fri before a change brings offshore winds Fri into Sat.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/10/another-round-strong-and-sizey-ne-swell-later
freeride76
Monday, 10 October 2022
Plenty of E to NE swell ahead this week courtesy of persistent, long, broad fetch of Tradewinds in the South Pacific slot, which has had windspeeds boosted on the northern flank by a tropical depression drifting south from Fijian longitudes. The weekend’s low pressure has scooted away quickly with high pressure now moving into the Tasman. This high will move into the Tasman and an approaching complex trough and cut-off low will tighten the pressure gradient through the week, leading to another round of strong and sizey NE swell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/07/ne-swell-easing-over-the-weekend-more-ene-ne
freeride76
Friday, 7 October 2022
Models now show this NE flow developing into another powerful fetch as a mid-latitude low and trough system approach from the West later next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/05/large-ne-swell-ahead-more-swell-direction-next
freeride76
Wednesday, 5 October 2022
Those pulses will be concurrent in a more dominant building NE windswell episode, through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Lots of action next week as both our Eastern and near Southern swell windows fire up.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/10/03/large-ne-swell-ahead-the-end-the-week
freeride76
Monday, 3 October 2022
A much stronger high is moving into the classic La Niña slot- SE of Tasmania- where it will start to be squeezed by another approaching inland trough and complex low pressure system. That will see increasing NE winds come into play from mid-week with increasing levels of NE windswell.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/09/30/fun-beachies-over-the-weekend-plenty-the-radar
freeride76
Friday, 30 September 2022
No great change to the weekend f/cast. Wind and swell regimens will be dominated by the low in the Tasman, which is now retreating towards the North Island with a large (1037hPa) high south of Tasmania. Pressure gradients do slowly ease over the weekend as the high relaxes over warm Tasman sea waters and the low sets up near the North Island.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/09/28/fun-surf-over-the-weekend-winds-ease-potential
freeride76
Wednesday, 28 September 2022
There’s still some model divergence to deal with but some model runs show gales developing in close proximity to the NE Tas coast. Under this scenario we will be looking at a serious NE swell event, for late next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/09/26/few-small-options-week-no-real-size
freeride76
Monday, 26 September 2022
S’ly winds freshen through Thurs, tending SSE through the day as the low winds up and a large high moves towards Tasmania. Tasmania is right at the tail of the fetch (see below) but this should still be sufficient to whip up 2-3ft of S swell through the day.
/reports/forecaster-notes/eastern-tasmania/2022/09/22/few-options-sun-large-s-swell-now-the-radar-mid
freeride76
Friday, 23 September 2022
Models are now starting to firm on quite a significant swell producing system as the low moves offshore and a strong high moving well south of the Bight offers a supporting pressure gradient squeeze on the Western flank of the low.
