Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 10th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• E/SE swell supplemented by new E swell Wed with light N’ly winds
• E swell holds Thurs AM before easing with N’ly winds
• Surf easing Fri with small NE windswell on offer
• New E-E/NE swell likely to build late Sat with onshore winds freshening as low approaches the state
• Large storm surf from the E Sun, holding at large sizes Mon and easing into Tues
• More E/NE swell on the radar for later next week

Recap

Fun 2ft sets on Tues with variable winds. Today has popped up a notch with SE-ESE swell in the 3ft range with variable winds now tending N’ly and freshening.

This week and next week (Aug10 - Aug 19)

The multiple fetches coming off a Tasman low near New Zealand anchored by a high just east of Tasmania are now starting to wane. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a weakening fetch of SE winds in the Central/Northern Tasman and a thin fetch of strong winds out of Cook Strait. That will lead to a slow easing trend through Fri and the start of the week-end.

In the short run and fun levels of E swell hold surf in the 3ft range through Thurs with a freshening N’ly flow, tending NW as a trough crosses the state and bends into Bass Strait in advance of a complex low pushing in from the W.

Light winds Fri coincide with small leftovers from the E, with sets topping out in the 1-2ft range easing during the day.

By Sat the trough and low moves E, with onshore winds developing on the East Coast. Expect tiny surf with freshening onshore E’ly winds through Sat.

There’s still some model divergence on the position of the low on Sun, and a fetch of strong winds on the southern flank of the low.  Either way we’ll see large storm surf from the SE to ESE develop, in conjunction with building NE swell. Both swell sources will combine to see surf build from 4ft into the 8-10ft range during the day with local gales possible. Surf only at the most sheltered spots is possible.

That XL storm surf extends into Mon with size in the 12ft+ range, easing during the day. Winds may tend offshore on Mon if the low moves SE off Tasmania as some models are suggesting. Check back Fri and we’ll finesse that wind call.

Easing but still strong surf extends into Tues with winds dependent on the position of the low. 6ft of SE swell is on the cards, easing during the day. Size holds solidly into Wed as the low slowly moves E.

Into the end of next week and a long fetch feeding into a trough extending from the Tasman Sea into the South Pacific generates quality E/NE swell. That should see surf build into the 4ft range through Thurs/Fri and extending into next weekend as the trough strengthens towards New Zealand.

More cold front activity into next weekend is expected to see S swell by next weekend, possibly sizey.

Check back Fri for a fresh update.