Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun NE windswell Tues with W’ly winds 
• Tiny surf from Wed-Fri
• Mod S swell Sat with fresh SW winds
• Sizey S swell persists Sun with over-riding long period energy bringing a boost too size and juice
• Strong long period S swell persists into Mon, slowly eases Tues/Wed

Recap

Tiny surf over the weekend with a slight bump in NE windswell Sun seeing  few 1-2ft waves. That size has held into today with light/mod NE winds.

This week and next week (Aug 29 – Sep 9)

Not a great deal of action on the charts to start the last week of Winter. A strong high (1040hPa)  is on the other side of New Zealand but pressure gradients in the Tasman are weak, with minimal swell energy being generated from that source. Later in the week, Tradewinds do poke their head up over New Zealand and generate some useful E swell.  N’ly winds are freshening ahead of a trough which is drawing down more moisture from the Indian Ocean and brings a  S’ly change mid-week and a small pulse in S swell.  A much stronger change on Sat looks to form a low in the Central/Northern Tasman with a more substantial swell increase also being generated by a deep polar low transiting the Tasman.

In the short run and NE windswell should thicken overnight with the fetch looking a hit healthier off the South Coast. Expect 3ft of NE windswell tomorrow  morning with N’ly winds tending W then SW as a front pushes through. 

That leaves tiny surf for the rest of the working week as W’ly winds sweep across the Island and groom surf close to flat.

The next swell increase is on Sat as a much stronger front tied to a polar low sweeps up past the state (see below). Expect surf to build into the 4-5ft range at S exposed breaks during the a’noon after a slow start with SW winds freshening. 

Strong S swell persists into Sun before an even stronger, long period pulse fills in around lunch-time. Surf in the 3-5ft range will be over-ridden by strong sets to 6ft+ at S facing beaches with W’ly winds.

Strong, long period S’ly swell then persists into Mon with size holding to 6-8ft , easing during the day with SW winds.

Expect a slow easing trend in S swell through Tues, into Wed as a fetch lingers near the South Island. 

Longer term and it looks like high pressure will set up a weak blocking pattern towards the end of next week. That suggests an easing trend in place from mid next week into the weekend 10-11/9.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.