Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/NE swell Mon with strong NW winds ahead of a late PM SW change
• Small inconsistent E/NE swell Tues with W winds tending SW later in the a’noon
• Late kick in small S swell Tues, holding into Wed morning before easing with more W’ly winds
• E/NE swell extends into Wed at low levels
• Small spike in local S swell Thurs, holding Fri morning before easing
• Tiny surf Sat with a bump in NE winds swell Sun
• Not much on offer to end Winter
• Tracking potential E/NE swell first week in Spring, stay tuned, still a long way out!

Recap

Plenty of nice waves for the weekend with Sat seeing size in the 3-5ft range, a bit Lully, with fresh SW-S winds. Size held in the 3-4ft range Sun with W’ly winds and we’ve seen more E-E/NE swell today in the 3-4ft range with fresh NW winds tending W’ly as a front passes over the state. All in all, a good little run of waves. 

This week and next week (Aug 22 - Sep2)

Synoptic charts this week look typical of a seasonal transition with mobile high pressure up at sub-tropical latitudes and a strong front sweeping  into the Tasman with a robust low forming on the front line before rapidly shifting eastwards. Behind that typical seasonal pattern lurks signs of La Niña with a persistent trough line in the Coral Sea and a very strong high expected to track through the Southern Bight later this week. We’ll monitor those precursor building blocks for another round of E swell in the medium/long term but for now, it’s the Tasman Sea that has most of the action. 

W’ly winds behind the front dominate tomorrow, and in fact we’ll see W’ly biased winds for most of the week.

Expect fresh W/SW-W winds tomorrow with surf from the E/NE in the 2ft range and a late kick in S swell to 2-3ft as a low passes well to the south. The E swell will be very inconsistent, coming from a retrograding low in the South Pacific last week so keep expectations low.

Wed see super inconsistent E/NE swell to 2ft mixed with small S swell to 2-3ft, easing during the day. Conditions will be clean under continuing W’ly winds, tending W/NW in advance of another front, much weaker than the current one.

Thursdays front sees a fetch next to the Island ( see below) with winds tending SW-S and low quality surf building from the S to 3ft at S facing beaches in the a’noon.

This swell holds in Fri morning at similar size before easing under light winds as a high slips E of the state. 

Looking to the weekend and Sat is expected to be marginal, with tiny swells and light winds.

Sunday looks better, with the high slipping to into the Tasman and a N’ly fetch building off the backside of the high, as is typical for Spring. That should push up 2-3ft of NE windswell into the a’noon under a freshening NE-N flow. 

Through next week and the last week of Winter is looking subdued .

Small NE windswell leftovers pad out Mon with surf below 2ft.

We’re then looking at some small/tiny surf through to mid next week, with W’ly winds grooming surf close to flat.

Into the medium term and as we mentioned at the start of the notes there is some potential for another round of E swell into the first week of Spring. At least one major weather model (EC) is suggesting the long trough line gets activated by a strong high moving south of the bight later next week. That does offer up hopes for another “trough block” scenario, although it’s way too early to begin frothing about it. We’ll flag it for now and see how it’s shaping up through this week.

Check back Wed for the latest update.