Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 15th August)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf Tues with a late kick in S swell, holding Wed morning
• NE windswell tending to better quality E/NE swell Thurs, with strong E/NE swell Fri-Sun
• Late kick in S swell Sat, holding into Sun AM
• More strong S swell expected from mid next week as frontal progression enters the Tasman

Recap

Tiny surf on Sat was superseded by a fast rising stormy E swell with size building into the 8ft range under fresh E’ly winds. Size has eased today into the 4-5ft range and E;’ly winds are now tending S’ly as a deep low moves away from the Island state and weakens.

This week and next week (Aug15 - Aug 26)

Remarkably there is little change to the current synoptic set-up which was forecast a week ago by weather models. A deep low just to the East of Tasmania is now slowly weakening and moving away, maintaining a westerly flow across the region. A trough line linked to the low extends from the Tasman Sea up into the Coral Sea past New Caledonia and over the next few days this trough deepens as it slowly moves East, activating an incredibly wide fetch of E to NE winds infeeding into it. We’re still looking good for a few days of quality surf from this source late in the week and into the weekend.

In the short run and size quickly eases as the current low near Tas, drifts away and weakens rapidly. That will see small leftovers in the 2ft range with winds tending SW as the low moves away.  A last cold front from the low supplies a small pulse of S swell in the 2ft range late Tues, and this will peak Wed morning in the 2-3ft range before easing during the day with winds quickly clocking around to the N on Wed as a low approaches from the west.

Winds freshen from the NW to W/NW Thurs as the low approaches with some small NE windswell on offer in the 2ft range through the day from N’lies extending up from Bass Strait. Better quality E/NE swell also arrives during the a’noon with some sets to 2-3ft.

That swell, from the trough block in South Pacific and Tasman (see below), will show more strongly on Fri with strong sets to 4ft expected through the a’noon and W’ly winds. That should offer up some superb beachbreaks. 

Complicated weekend f/cast with plenty of swell on tap.

Expect some revision through the week with a cold front passing through Sat, bringing fresh WSW winds, which should groom strong E/NE swell in the 4ft range. Expect a late kick in new S swell as well, with size building late to 3-4ft, depending on the timing of the frontal passage.

Sunday sees a strong mix of E/NE and S swell with both sources around 3-4ft early, easing through the a’noon and fresh W’ly winds.

Expect easing swells into early next week with E/NE swell dropping back to 2-3ft Mon, and 2ft Tues. W/SW to SW winds are expected as fronts start to pass into the Tasman.

 From mid next week we’ll be turning eyes back to the south as a major frontal progression/cold outbreak and deep polar lows enter the southern swell window. 

Models are still offering mixed messages but the basic pattern suggests some strong S swell pulses from Wed next week. We’ll flag those for now and drill down into specifics this week as model guidance becomes clearer.

Check back Wed for the latest update on what is shaping up to be an active period of good waves.