The “trough block” pattern mentioned on Wed looks to set-up as the clearing trough Mon sets up a long N-S oriented line in the Tasman to Coral Seas and focusses a long E’ly fetch through this vast area. Windspeeds are the limiting factor but we should see a steady increase in E'ly swell from Thurs into next weekend.
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A low in the Tasman is moving north with a slingshot fetch of S-SE winds expected to rebuild wave heights from the S-SE later today and into tomorrow while a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is sending more E’ly angled swell into the sub-tropical Points.
A trough in the Coral Sea accentuates an unstable SE flow in the sub-tropics and adds a local source of SE-E/SE swell into the mix north of Coffs. The high will be dominant right through into next week, as it slowly drifts into the Tasman, with some possibly juicy long range scenarios.
We’re looking at an unseasonable coastal trough developing off the SE Qld region, which is expected to generate solid, punchy short range E/SE swells for a few days.
Our benign outlook runs into the weekend and right through it so there’ll be a few days better suited for rockfishing/inshore diving ahead.
A sub-tropical low north of the North Island scooted away to the SE over the weekend and as a result the long range E/SE swell is likely to be closer to 2ft than 3ft.
The system reaches peak strength over the weekend in Tongan longitudes, with a long fetch of E'ly winds, but it is moving away as it deepens, which limits swell growth.
995 hPa low still sitting in the Central Tasman, but the supporting high pressure cell has slipped in underneath the low and as a result we’re seeing a slowly diminishing fetch and easing pressure gradients both in the Tasman and along the coastal fringe.
That low is expected to slowly drift and dissipate through the week, maintaining elevated surf through too mid-week with a very slow easing trend in place.
A secondary front pushing into the Tasman coalesces with a deepening low near New Zealand and the system then retrogrades back into the Tasman over an already active sea state delivering powerful S/SE swell before taking up residency in the Central Tasman for a few days next week with a slow, slow easing in big swells expected.