South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Oct 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly winds Tues with sizey S’ly swells down a notch from Mondays peak
• Good quality E swell arriving  Mon, persisting Tues/Wed, easing Thurs with generally favourable winds for Points then beachies
• Small S swell Fri, persisting into Sat as trough/low forms in Tasman
• Another small flush of S swell early next week, favouring south of the border

Recap

Game of two halves this weekend with Sat seeing N’ly winds and small, scrappy NE windswell to 2ft before a S’ly change worked it’s way north, reaching the border after dark. Sunday was windy with fresh S’ly winds and a building S’ly swell (mostly short range windswell) kicking up to 3-4ft at exposed locations in NENSW, smaller elsewhere. Penty of size on offer this morning in NENSW from the S as a low pressure system hovers in the Tasman with exposed S facing beaches in the 4-6ft+ range, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, grading smaller into more sheltered locations. We should see the S’ly flow extend through the day at fresh/strong paces.

Sparkly peelers provide log heaven in SEQLD this morning

This week (Oct 21-25)

Not much change for the short run f/cast this week. The current low located near Lord Howe Island dissipates through today with easing winds along the Eastern Seaboard as a result. Weak pressure gradients then occupy the Tasman through the mid week, offering up good conditions as a long range E swell makes landfall. We’ll see another trough and more frontal activity through the second half of the week with a complex low pressure trough now looking weaker and more disjointed compared to Fridays model runs. In short, we’ll still see some S swell from this system, but nothing major.

In the short run we’ll see pressure gradients slowly ease by nightfall with morning SW breezes, tending mod/fresh S’ly. Todays peak in short range S swell will ease off, leaving 4-5ft of swell, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with a slow easing trend after lunch.  We’ll see sets from the E fill in through the day. From the morning session onwards we should see sets start to slowly show from 2-3ft into the 3-4ft range with the occ. bigger set.

E swell then peaks Wed, along with well-timed light morning breezes from the W.  Winds then tend variable and end up as light/mod NE seabreezes which may freshen o/night as a trough approaches. There will be inconsistent, slow patches so factor that in as far as crowds go. Sets to 4ft with the occ. bigger pulse should provide some really fun waves when they come. 

That trough moves northwards through Thurs but doesn’t look to impact most of the region until after dark (arriving Coffs 2-3PM) with N-NE winds in advance of the trough, S’ly winds behind the trough. E swell sets hang in there to 4ft early, tailing off through the day. Early winds should be light enough for most backbeaches to be clean with open beaches carrying some N’ly cross-hatching.

By Fri, we’ll see another front push into the Tasman with the creation of another complex trough of low pressure with one arm of the trough located off the SEQLD coast. Although it doesn’t form a huge closed low like Fridays forecast suggested we’ll still see some S swell created by a fetch off the SW flank of the low. Expect SW winds early tending to S’ly-SE’ly breezes at mod strength through the day. It’ll be a mop up day for E swell with the odd 2-3ft set through the morning, reinforced by some new S swell to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches.

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

Much more subdued weekend now expected as the low pressure trough quickly weakens and dissipates. We should see workable S swell to 3ft Sat morning in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD and light morning land breezes, tending N-NE in the a’noon. That would suggest a few fun waves at S facing beaches.

Not a great deal of action Sun. S swell fades out, with a few 2ft leftovers in the AM under light NW winds. We’ll see a freshening N-NE flow during the day as high pressure moves NE and a trough approaches from the W, possibly whipping up some rideable NE windswell. Nothing over 2ft and likely under 1.5ft.

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

Looks like a frontal system moving into the Tasman early next week brings SW-S winds Mon and a small flush of S swell Tues/Wed.

Further ahead and we’ll see some deep frontal activity below the continent with mostly zonal winds and aimed better across the Tasman at New Zealand targets. That should generate some small refracted S swell for our region later next week.

We’ll see how it looks as we move through the week.

Check back Wed for the latest updates.