South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Nov 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swells Sat with light onshore winds
• Slightly better S swell Sun in NENSW with onshore winds tending N-NE and freshening
• Increase in NE windswell Sun, extending into Mon, favouring MNC for size
• Spell of small, weak surf ahead with mostly N’ly winds

Recap

Not much to recap with yesterday seeing a few leftover 2ft sets from the S-SE in NENSW (tiny in SEQLD) with early light winds which tended mod/fresh N/NE in the a’noon, whipping up a modest amount of NE winds swell. Storms overnight have left calm conditions in SEQLD, N’lies in NENSW ahead of a S’ly tending SE change. Only small leftover NE windswell to 1-2ft on offer today. 

Still some lines at NENSW backbeaches yesterday 

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure slides into the Tasman off the Central NSW coast while the remnants of a front scoot across the Tasman. The front will have generated a small flush of S swell arriving later Sat into Sun, whilst a proximate fetch of SE winds will supply small, weak short range SE swell for Sat. Not much in the way of size- topping out around 2 occ. 3ft at NENSW S swell magnet, mostly 2ft or less across the rest of the region. Keep expectations pegged pretty low for quality. A light wind flow in the morning before winds clock around SE-E then tend mod E’ly in the a’noon, more E/NE on the MNC. 

We’ll see that NE flow freshen on Sun and tend N’ly as a front and trough approach from the W. Another day of small S swells in NENSW with a few 2 occ. 3ft sets at the best S swell magnets and small, weak windswells to 2ft or less in the mix. For most beaches it’ll be a low energy surf zone to 2ft or less with onshore winds. We should see some workable NE windswell favouring the MNC develop later Sun a’noon. 

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A shallow troughy change Mon looks to stall south of the MNC on Mon. If that current outlook holds we’re looking at a working week of N’ly winds and patches of NE windswell. We’ll finesse this outlook Mon because there is moderate confidence at least the lower end of the MNC will be tickled by the trough and see variable or S-SE winds. 

High confidence that SEQLD into NENSW will see N-NE winds Mon-Fri.

Nothing spectacular ahead but we should see an initial peak in NE windswell Mon to 2ft (possibly a notch bigger on the MNC) followed by some very low energy days. 

Another peak looks likely later in the week Thurs into Fri, topping out at 2-3ft. 

We’ll see how those current model outputs stack up on Mon. Expect revisions on size and timing before you make any calls.

More weak troughiness in the Tasman towards the end of next week. That would suggest more small, weak swells and wind changes with no major swells on the radar.  We should see a weak, E’ly trade flow develop across the Eastern extremity of the Coral Sea and into the South Pacific slot later next week which would see some background E swell start to fill in next weekend and medium term. No size to it, but supplying some occ. 2 footers into the mix which would keep open beaches surfable.

We’ll also be watching the South Pacific Convergence Zone from the Solomons extending down to the Vanuatu and Fijian island chains for signs of instability and convective activity which would be precursor signs of low pressure development. Nothing concrete at this stage but we are approaching that season.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!