South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Oct 23rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Good quality E swell easing Thurs with NW winds before a S’ly change (MNC only)
• Sizier S swell increase Fri PM, persisting into Sat/Sun as trough/low forms in Tasman
• S’ly winds Fri/Sat, tending N’ly on Sun
• Another flush of S swell early next week, possibly sizey as trough/low forms in Tasman

Recap

We saw mostly S swells yesterday morning to 4ft in NENSW with early light land breezes tending to mod S’lies before laying down in the a’noon. E’ly swells eventually started filling in through the morning, showing strongly across the MNC, and are showing nicely this morning to 3-4ft (few 5ft sets), if a little inconsistent. Conditions are clean this morning under light W’ly tending SW’ly breezes but winds will clock around NE’ly through the day and start to freshen, reaching mod paces through the a’noon. .

Clean E swells and offshore winds, don't adjust your sets this is October

Nice showing across most of the North Coast

This week (Oct 23-25)

Weak pressure gradient in the Tasman are leading to light winds tending to N’lies as a series of troughs tracks across the interior towards the East Coast, followed by a weak high tracking at a more typical, seasonal latitude. We’ll see the trough and a front push into the Tasman through tomorrow and into Fri with a complex but disjointed low forming in the Tasman. That will see a S wind change and some, windy but sizey S swells through the end of the week into the weekend. Lingering troughiness in the Tasman may see yet another low form next week- which would be the 4th successive surface low to form in October. Models are struggling to resolve this complex and unstable pattern so low confidence results- but probabilistic outcomes strongly suggest another round of S swell next week from this surface low. 

In the short run morning NW breezes tend N’ly with a trough moving up the coast and bringing a S’ly change. That change looks to reach Coffs around lunch-time, before becoming slow moving and stalling about the North Coast- which means we may see winds back off across the Far North Coast close to dark, while remaining N’ly in SEQLD.  E-E/NE swell will still be in the water with 3 occ. 4ft sets, inconsistent at times. A gradual tailing off in energy would be expected through the a’noon. There should be some fun options around for the patient. 

A deepening trough off the North Coast strengthens the S’ly flow on Fri with an early SW-S/SW breeze quickly tending to mod/fresh S’lies. The front and trough form a complex, broad and disjointed surface low in the Tasman and even this close to the event there is still considerable model uncertainty. Compared to Mondays runs the fetch now forming off the South Coast down to Tasmania and the fetch off Northern NSW look more robust  which would suggest a  kick in size for Fri, likely building into the 3-4ft range across NENSW through the a’noon, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Leftover E swells should hold a few inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets through the morning. 

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

Forecast for Sat gets a size upgrade due to the aforementioned flare up in the Tasman from both near and far sources. We should see size up into the 3-5ft range Sat under current modelling at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller into more sheltered corners and 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches with tiny peelers on the Points. Looks like we will still S’ly flow as the complex low tracks slowly across the Tasman. We’ll finesse that on Fri. For now, odds are for a SW flow in the morning, tending to mod S’lies through the day, laying down in the later a’noon. 

Winds tend N’ly on Sun as a trough line sits off the East coast, tending  NW during the morning before mod N/NE seabreezes during the day. S swell  holds 3-5ft surf across NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD.

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

Bit of a roller-coaster week as far as the outlook is concerned but models are now suggesting another broad surface low forming in lingering troughiness early next week. Triggered by a front moving into the area Mon.

Low confidence so expect revisions but at this stage we would expect a low point Mon with N’ly winds before short range S swell builds Tues/Wed with a S’ly change.

Remnants of the previous low look to rebuild a fetch near the South Island over the weekend (see below) which would see quality S/SE swell through Tues into Wed, possibly as a weaker signal in a dominant building S swell as the new Tasman low winds up. 

Lots of potential outcomes depending on how this system evolves but it would be hard to imagine size less than 4ft at this stage.

We’ll pencil in another active week next week, with potential for sizey S swells and see how it looks on Fri.

Seeya then.