South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Oct 30th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor swells Thurs/Fri -possibly some NE windswell Thurs PM/Fri AM on the MNC
• N’ly winds Thurs, A S’ly change Fri
• Small S swells Sat with light onshore winds
• Increase in NE windswell Sun, extending into Mon, favouring MNC for size
• Spell of small, weak surf ahead with mostly N’ly winds

Recap

Quality S/SE groundswell was in the water yesterday, mixed with other S swell trains, with size to 3ft+ n NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Morning winds were favourable with a SW flow before light/mod S-SE winds kicked up in the a’noon. Size has eased into the 2-3ft range today in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with clean morning conditions under a light offshore flow, tending N/NE through the day.

A few smaller peelers pinwheeling into the Points yesterday on low tide

This week (Oct 30-Nov1)

We’re still looking at a fairly bland synoptic pattern with a weak, troughy environment in the Tasman, undergirded by zonal frontal activity well to the south. Some modest frontal activity pushes through late in the week with a developing N’ly flow on Sun set to provide some NE windswell. Looks like more of the same next week with a fluctuating trough remaining semi-stalled along the NSW coast bringing mostly N'ly winds  and small, weak swells.

In the short run we’ll see light morning winds from the NW, tending mod/fresh N’ly as a trough approaches from the south. Not much surf to speak of but a small amount of leftover SE swell to 2ft along with traces of S-S/SE swell from sideband energy generated by gales below New Zealand. That should see some 2 ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Minor NE windswell may offer up a rideable wave for the desperate south of Yamba in the a’noon.

The trough brings a S’ly change for Fri with light SW breezes extending north of Yamba before winds shift S/SE through the morning. Just a small grovel expected for the morning session with mixed 1 occ. 2ft surf (mostly NE windswell) under light winds. We may see a minor (very minor!) increase in short range S-SE swell later in the a’noon, not exceeding 2ft. Keep expectations pegged very low and you might find a grovel. 

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

High pressure moves into the Tasman on Sat with a weak ridge holding a light onshore flow tending SE-NE in the a’noon. We should see a window of light land breezes first thing or at least slack winds. Fridays front leaves a small signal of S swell offering up 2ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW- tiny in SEQLD- but with the power turned down. Keep expectations low and you may find a rideable wave. 

We’re still looking at an increasing N-NE flow on Sun strongest in NENSW as a frontal system and trough approach from the West. It doesn’t look quite as juicy as Mondays notes suggested but through the a’noon NE windswell should build to 2 occ.3ft at appropriately angled beaches south of Byron with smaller surf north to the border and in SEQLD. 

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A shallow trough moves up coast  Mon, likely stalling around the Hunter region. That will see continuing N’ly winds for our region and modest NE windswell, favouring the MNC for size. That should top out around 3ft, grading smaller with increasing N’ly latitude. Expect moderate/fresh N’ly winds to continue.

The trough then looks to stall or oscillate slowly up and down around the Hunter/MNC region for Tues/Wed, bringing lighter N’ly onshore winds and a continuing signal of NE windswell to 2-3ft. A S’ly change may sneak into the MNC depending on how the trough behaves. We’ll finetune that on Fri.

More N’lies through Thurs/Fri before another shallow troughy change later next week.  Again, probably stalling somewhere on the MNC. 

As a result expect an extended period of N’ly winds across SEQLD and into NENSW through the medium term.

Frontal activity below the continent and in the far southern Tasman is zonal and focussed more on the New Zealand corridor (see below). As a result any S swell will be marginal through next week but we may see some traces of S groundswell glancing the coast from sideband energy off these fetches. That pattern looks to extend into the medium term (past next week) so get those grovellers waxed up.

A weak E’ly flow in the easterly extremities of the Coral Sea later next week is likely to supply small, background energy medium term.

There is some increasing convective activity now expected through the PNG/Solomons window which we’ll keep an eye on medium term in case anything starts to spin up there. 

Otherwise, not much action on the radar.

We’ll see how it looks on Fri.