South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Nov 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE windswell this weekend
• Flukey winds this weekend a trough- more NE in SEQLD, lighter and more variable in NENSW
• Small blend of NE and E swells next week
• Small, flukey pulse of long period S swell Tues/Wed next week 
• More dynamic outlook late next week as trough deepens in Tasman, possible sizier S-SE swell on the cards- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

More small, weak low energy surf to recap with yesterday seeing NE windswell to 1-2ft building a notch on the North Coast (mostly south of Yamba) to 2 occ. 3ft, clean early before NE winds got up. Small leftovers to 1ft on offer this morning in SEQLD and the Tweed with more size to 2-3ft on the MNC. Clean conditions early under light winds with N’lies expected to freshen again during the day in SEQLD, while a trough brings S-SE winds along the MNC to North Coast. Dismal stuff for the most part.

A notch more size and quality to the NE windswell on the MNC

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

No change to the surf outlook over the weekend which remains small and weak but winds will be all over the place as a trough of low pressure hovers about the NSW North Coast. With a front pushing through today and the trough moving north tomorrow we should see and onshore S tending SE flow tomorrow extending up as far as the Gold Coast with more a more N’ly flow on the Sunshine Coast. Winds should be light/variable early across the North Coast. No surf to speak of with minor leftover NE windswells to 1-2ft tops offering some babyfood for logs and learners. Winds looks to tend onshore SE-E in the a’noon, more E/NE-NE on the Sunshine Coast.

Sunday morning looks better, at least as far as surface conditions go although mostly limited to south of the border regions. We should see a light W-NW flow early, swirling around through the compass points as a troughy area sits across the North Coast. Winds look to be more NW-N/NW in SEQLD with winds tending N-NE and freshening across the entire region during the day.  Early birds will find some clean (ish) babyfood in the 1-2ft range- suitable for logs and learners or a grovel.  

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

A very unstable pattern is on the menu for next week with a trough or troughs of low pressure in the Tasman and weak high pressure sitting in the lower Tasman. At present models are all over the shop as these weak lows drift around. No major swells from these weak lows, just some minor background SE-E swell at this point, not exceeding 2ft.

S’ly groundswell is currently being generated by a slow moving polar low on the far edge of the swell window well to the SW of Tasmania. Most of this swell is better aimed at the southern states and South Pacific targets but we will see some refraction into the East Coast. There’s a bit to like- it’s slow moving- and a bit to dislike- windspeeds are a little on the low side (35-40kts). That suggests a more downside outlook for the swell as far as wave heights go, but a little more persistence. 

We’re looking at swells showing Tues a’noon in the 2-3ft range at reliable S swell magnets in NENSW with the bulk of the swell filling in Wed, in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches and reefs. Expect outliers at deepwater adjacent S facing reefs and a few no shows, with SEQLD lucky to see the occ. 2ft set at S swell magnets and northern corners. 

The more local swell climate will be short period E’ly swell and that should see  Mon into the 1 occ. 2ft range and hover there through to Wed tending to minor NE windswell through Tues/Wed at similar sizes. Expect revisions if the troughy pattern in the Tasman changes over the weekend. Light onshore winds look to be workable with morning land breezes on the cards. 

Things do look to take a more muscular turn at the end of the week as a stronger high moves south of the Bight towards Tasmania and the Tasman Sea trough deepens and forms a tighter pressure gradient with the large high. Early days but we may see a stronger S’ly change and and S-SE swells as a SE fetch forms in the Tasman. 

We’ll flag this scenario for now and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!