South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Oct 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Sizier S swell increase Fri PM, persisting into Sat/Sun as trough/low forms in Tasman
• Fresh S’ly winds Fri, easing Sat, tending N’ly on Sun
• Small pulse of S/SE swell Tues, easing Wed
• Small S swell possible Tues/Wed
• Uncertain outlook later next week, likely some N’ly winds and small surf- check back Mon for the latest

Recap

E swell hung in there yesterday with sets to 3-4ft, slowly tailing off through the day. Early winds were generally light enough for most spots but N’lies kicked up quickly. A S’ly change spread north reaching Coffs around lunch-time and stalling between Yamba and Ballina late in the day. E swells still offered up a few 2 occ. 3ft waves this morning with morning SW winds now tending strong S’ly as a trough of low pressure winds up off the North Coast. A steep spike in new short range S swell is expected through the a’noon.

Still some sets on offer from the E, clean before the S'ly kicked in

This weekend (Oct 26-27 )

No change to the weekend f/cast. A complex but disjointed low has formed in the Tasman with diffuse centres off the North Coast and Tasmania/Gippsland coast. We’ll see various S swells generated by proximate and distal fetches from this system over the weekend and into next week. 

Under present modelling a slingshot effect from the southern centre will see a sizey, chunky S swell build tomorrow with S swells in the 3-4ft range building to 4-5ft at NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with bigger sets on the border. We should see some W’ly component in morning winds (SW-S/SW) across the region for the early. Winds then clock around mod/fresh S’ly before laying down in the a’noon and tending to lighter SE-E/SE breezes. Nothing perfect but there should be enough swell energy getting into more sheltered spots to find a surfable wave, favouring regional points and Bays in NENSW.

High pressure quickly moves NE into the Tasman o/night Sat into Sun, leaving a light morning land breeze for Sun (W-W/NW) that will clock around N’ly through the late morning and tend to mod N’ly breezes in the a’noon. Easing but still sizey S swell to 3-5ft occ. bigger sets (smaller 3ft in SEQLD) will tail off through the a’noon, offset by a more favourable swell direction from the S/SE. 

Next week (Oct 28 onwards)

We’ve got a little more clarity over next week’s outlook now as the Tasman Sea continues to remain in a troughy, unstable state which has been a feature of the last 4 La Niña dominated years. 

We’ll see a cold front move into the Tasman Mon, with early W tending N’ly winds.  Not much surf expected Mon, with a low point in energy offering up weak 2ft surf. 

We’ll see light then S’ly tending SE winds Tues as a trough moves north in advance of strong high pressure in the Bight. A flare up of the low near the South Island over the weekend (see below) supplies some well angled, good quality S/SE swell for Tues in the 3ft range, with best conditions early. We may also see some more local S swell in the mix as well. EC continues to suggest a low pressure trough in the Tasman which will see moderate S swells into Tues and Wed.

GFS prognosis is for a more bog standard frontal system to skip across the Tasman, with minor S swells into Wed.

Continuing troughiness further complicates matter later next week with model outputs all over the shop - both run to run and between models. 

We may see a small low pressure trough develop next week followed by a strong NE flow into an approaching trough, or a weak front and high moving into the Tasman. In other words, very low confidence in f/cast outcomes from mid next week. Model tendencies have been to overcook low pressure development which would favour a more prudent approach. 

We’ll keep an eye on it over the weekend as always and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!