South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Fri Oct 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Workable NE windswell Sat (favouring MNC for size) with fresh N tending NW winds, before a late S’ly change on the MNC
• S’ly winds Sun persisting into Mon/Tues with sizey S swells developing as low moves NE into Tasman
• Now tracking a low forming near Fiji expected to send good quality E swell our way as it moves through swell window, arriving  Mon, persisting Tues/Wed, easing Thurs with generally favourable winds
• Another sizey S swell event on the horizon as low pressure forms in Tasman end of next week- check back Mon for latest revisions

Recap

A nice kick in SE swell for Thurs saw fun 3ft surf yesterday across a fair swathe of NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD,  under light morning land breezes which tended light E-NE in the a’noon. Size has settled down to some 2 occ. 3ft leftovers this morning in NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD with a N’ly bump on it from overnight winds. N’ly winds are expected to freshen during the day as a front and low approach from the W.

A fair amount of swell energy across NENSW yesterday if you could find a decent bank

This weekend (Oct 19-20)

No great change to the weekend forecast. A low is expected to move E of Tasmania o/night and form a broad low pressure trough in the Tasman driving N-NW’ly then S’ly winds up the coast before moving NE as a surface low over the weekend. That will be the second surface low in succession to form in the Tasman and we may yet see a third develop later next week. 

Early N’lies tomorrow morning shift fresh N/NW-NW across NENSW, remaining more N-N/NW in SEQLD before a S’ly change works out way northwards, reaching Coffs mid a’noon, the border just on dark. We’ll see some workable NE windswell favouring the MNC to 3ft or so, grading smaller in the north. There may be some workable windows in NENSW as winds shift more NW through the day for some fun lefts, but best keep expectations low. After dark we’ll see S’ly winds freshen across the entire region.

Winds increase Sun as the low pressure trough moves NE so expect a fresh/strong SW-S’ly flow most of the day with just a brief period of more W’ly winds possible early in the morning. Size will be up though with with mostly short range S swell trains in the 3-4ft range building to 4-6ft through the day in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD at S exposed breaks. Again, S’ly winds will force surfing into more sheltered locations where size will be smaller but regional points should make a decent fist out of supplying some quality waves, sandbanks permitting.

Next week (Oct 21 onwards)

We’ll see low pressure located near Lord Howe Island by Mon with a continuing stiff S’ly flow along most of the eastern seaboard and plenty of size from the S-S/SE. Expect fresh S’lies and size in the 6-8ft+ range (bigger across open river bars) tending more S/SE in the a’noon. We’ll also see a slow building trend from the E as swells fill in from a tropical depression drifting south from Fiji.

It should be a slow build as initial pulses from the tradewind band make landfall with sets building to 3ft by close of play.

Stronger, longer period swells show on Tues with 4ft sets through the day. It will be coming from a fair way away so expect pulses and slow periods. Winds should moderate into Tues as the low dissipates and pressure gradients ease. We’ll see easing but still sizey S/SE swells to 6ft across NENSW, grading smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD.

We’ll see E/SE swells extend into Wed with a very slow ramping down in size and consistency  into Thurs. Still plenty of quality on offer with light SW winds tending SE Wed and winds shifting more N’ly on Thurs. Expect revisions to that wind f/cast.

Further ahead and another dynamic outlook is ahead. Major models are in agreement that another front/trough system forms a surface low in the Tasman late next week, possibly an order of magnitude greater than the current iterations (see below). Under current modelling we’d expect stiff SW-S winds to develop Fri with a very sizey S swell developing into the weekend, up into the 6-8ft range. We may see a second phase of the swell as low pressure stalls or retrogrades from near the South Island, suggesting a reinforcing pulse of SE swell early week of 28/10. Too early to have any confidence in specifics of size or timing there. 

Certainly something to get excited about though, especially as we move into the second half of October.

Check back Mon and we’ll see how it’s shaping up and until then, have a great weekend!