South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th Mar)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Complex scenario unfolding for the weekend with strengthening NE winds and building swells Sat
• Fun waves Sun AM with solid NE swells and offshore winds north of Coffs- tending SW-S through the day
• Fun E/NE swell persists into Mon
• Sizey S swells building south of the border Mon with SW-S tending S/SE winds
• Sizey S swells Tues, easing Wed, favouring NENSW for size
• Long range S/SE groundswell showing Wed PM, holding Thurs, easing Fri (flukey and favouring NENSW)
• Light onshore winds Wed, tending SW-S Thurs, light on Fri

Recap

Small, gurgly E’ly swells yesterday in the 2-3ft range and reasonably clean through the morning, before onshore winds and rain squalls made a mess of most beaches. The onshore flow is back this morning with most spots affected by winds or high tide. Surf is hovering in the 2-3ft range.

Small and scrappy this morning

This weekend (Mar 29 - 30)

OK, we have more clarity on a dynamic weekend f/cast- although it’s still very much in play so uncertainty is still present in outcomes. A trough of low pressure inland is drifting down through inland Australia, laden with tropical moisture being fed in from both Northern and Coral Sea infeeds. As the trough moves south it’s dragging a strong NE infeed down with it. That will see strong NE winds develop through Sat across the region, lightest inshore early. Surf looks a little undersized for the dawny- with 3-4ft surf on the beachies. Both EC and ACCESS models are suggesting a much stronger NE infeed into the trough suggesting sizey NE swells through the day from late morning/lunch-time into the 5-6ft range by close of play. GFS has a weaker infeed with modelled outcomes in the 4-5ft range. With strong NE winds only select backbeaches will be in play for a surfable wave.

By Sun we are looking at a deep low forming off the Far South Coast and a small trough exiting the coast near the SEQLD/NSW border. That should see offshore winds for the SEQLD/Far North Coast with NE winds from about Coffs southwards. Really fun NE swell in the 5-6ft range is on offer, easing through the day. We’ll see winds shift S then S/SE at mod paces around Coffs with winds further north likely to be swirling around the trough. Expect variable winds that could tend SW-NW or even NE depending on the trough. It’s a very fluid situation so keep tabs on local winds! 

Next week (Mar 31 onwards)

We’re now looking at a very significant S swell early next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate southern swell window. Concurrently, another Ross Sea ice shelf fetch will be peaking or just post-peak as a massive deep low forms NE of the Ross Sea on the weekend and develops storm force winds. We’ll deal with that one in a moment!

Back to the Tasman Sea low which will be the dominant swell producer. By Mon we are looking at very large S swells across Southern/Central NSW which will push into NENSW through the day. In SEQLD that increase is not likely until after dark. Fun E-E/NE swell to 3ft under S’ly winds holds a fun wave there. Further south we should see surf build across the MNC mid morning-lunchtime, building late in the day across the North Coast and reaching 5-6ft by close of play (bigger 6-8ft at exposed S facing beaches) under mod S-S/SE winds.

Very large S swell for Tues, favouring NENSW for size. Under current modelling we should see surf in the 6-8ft range at NENSEW regional points, grading smaller 4-5ft at SEQLD S facing beaches with smaller surf wrapping into the Points. SW-S winds early, tending/light mod S/SE through the day. There will be some small E swell still on offer in the 2-3ft range which should pad out wave heights in SEQLD.

By Wed we’ll still see plenty of S swell across NENSW, smaller into SEQLD but down from Tuesdays peak. Size in the 6ft range across NENSW, easing through the day and 3-4ft in SEQLD. Winds look a bit more troublesome as a trough sits off the MNC and onshore winds to the north of it impact our region. They should be light in the morning, tending to E-E/NE breezes through the day- enough to mess up regional points.  Also showing late in the day will be super long period S/SE swell from the Antarctic fetch.By close of play the sets should be showing in the 2-3ft range across NENSW and will be more noticeable as Tasman sea swells ease. 

A couple of really nice days should follow with long range S/SE and easing S-S/SE swells holding 3ft surf Thurs (bigger sets likely at S swell magnets) under light winds- light SW winds tending S’ly as the trough off the MNC forms a small low and moves offshore. 

Easing further into Fri but with fun waves at S facing beaches under light winds. 

Lots to digest, we’ll keep tabs on developments over the weekend and report back Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!