Significant L-XL S swell now on the radar as deep low forms in Tasman over the weekend
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 28th Mar)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small early with building NE swells Sat PM - freshening NE winds with winds shifting NW-SW-S late in the day
- Potential for clean NE swell Sun morning under fresh W-SW winds
- Winds tending strong/gale force SW-S Sun PM with building S swells
- Deep Tasman low now generating very sizey S swells early next week
- Large-XL S swell Mon favouring big wave reefs under strong SW-S winds
- Still L-XL Tues with SW-S winds, both swell and wind moderating through the a’noon
- Pumping surf Wed with light offshore winds and plenty of size from the S, easing through the a’noon
- Long range ice shelf S/SE groundswell into the mix Wed, holding Thurs
- Another good day likely Thurs with good winds and a mix of S and S/SE swells
- Easing Fri with good winds and fun waves at S facing beaches
Recap
Only small surf to recap with yesterday seeing the occ. 2ft set across open beaches from the S/SE with clean conditions early under light land breezes before light E’ly-NE’ly breezes kicked in. Even smaller today with surf barely reaching 2ft on the sets and light winds before E’ly winds really picked up and made a mess of just about everywhere.
Just the occ. small line of S/SE swell trying to break through the high tide
This weekend (Mar 29 - 30)
OK, we have more clarity on a dynamic weekend f/cast- although it’s still very much in play so uncertainty is still present in outcomes. A trough of low pressure inland is drifting down through inland Australia, laden with tropical moisture being fed in from both Northern and Coral Sea infeeds. As the trough moves south it’s dragging a strong NE infeed down with it. That will see strong NE winds develop through Sat across the region, lightest inshore early. Surf looks a little undersized for the dawny- with 2ft surf on the beachies. Both EC and ACCESS models are suggesting a much stronger NE infeed into the trough suggesting building NE swells through the day from late morning/lunch-time into the 3-5ft range by close of play. GFS has a much weaker infeed with modelled outcomes in the 3ft range. Unlikely any step-up will be required but a line of best fit suggests plenty of NE windswell developing through the a’noon. Winds are also looking dynamic as a trough forms off the South Coast, forms a small closed surface low which then gets super-charged as it merges with a trough/front system coming from the south and the full tropical trough exits the coast with explosive development now likely. We should see a wind change through the a’noon, likely reaching Sydney 4-5PM. Winds may shift NW-W right before the change, linger W/SW briefly before freshening from the SW-S. It’s not set in stone but the potential for a good session in improving offshore conditions and NE swell is there for the late, especially Sydney northwards to Hunter. Keep tabs on local winds!
By Sun we are looking at a deep low forming off the Far South Coast with gales to potentially low end storm force winds adjacent to the NSW South Coast and a steep increase in new S swell focussed on the a’noon. The morning still has potential for cleanish NE swell from winds infeeding into the developing low. Early winds should be offshore W-W/SW with surf in the 3 occ. 4ft range. By mid morning winds will clock around SW and freshen to strong and gusty, before becoming gale force S’lies through the a’noon. Through the a’noon we’ll see a fast building short range S swell reaching 6ft+ by dark although much smaller into more protected spots. Wild and wooly for Sun but there will be some options around.
Next week (Mar 31 onwards)
We’re now looking at a very significant S swell early next week as a deep low sits off the South or Gippsland Coast with severe gales to storm force winds aimed into the proximate southern swell window. Concurrently, another Ross Sea ice shelf fetch will be peaking or just post-peak as a massive deep low forms NE of the Ross Sea on the weekend and develops storm force winds. We’ll deal with that one in a moment!
Back to the Tasman Sea low which will be the dominant swell producer. By Mon we are looking at very large S swells across Southern/Central NSW. Typically lows of this magnitude produce surf in the 10-12ft range with significantly larger surf on open bommies and deep-water adjacent reefs. Only a few select spots will be handling with the strong SW-S/SW winds expected. Experts only.
Very large surf again for Tues, although we’re likely to see swells ease through the day as the low starts to weaken. There's still some uncertainty over the peak of the swell- it may be late Mon, but Tues AM is still a possibility- we'll revise on Mon. Highly likely though we will still see 10ft surf on Tues with bigger 12ft sets in the morning, becoming less likely through the day. Similar winds with fresh SW winds, tending S’ly and moderating a notch by close of play. Another day for the big wave reefs that can handle SW winds.
By Wed we should see surf start to become more democratic as swells ease and winds shift more favourably offshore. The low will be semi-stationary but easing, with a light offshore outflow across Central NSW. With light offshore winds we should see many more spots light up.
Still some real size in the morning requiring serious lumber with 6-8ft sets on offer but by lunch-time we should be easing back into the 5-6ft range and by close of play those 6ft sets will be rare. Also showing through the day will be super long period S/SE swell from the Antarctic fetch. They’ll be a small signal in the morning but by close of play the sets (3-4ft is likely) will be more noticeable as Tasman sea swells ease. Light offshore winds in the morning tending to light NE seabreezes look to offer a perfect autumn day.
A couple of really nice days should follow with long range S/SE and easing S-S/SE swells holding 3-4ft surf Thurs (bigger 5ft sets likely at S swell magnets) under light winds- offshore winds lingering through the morning and tending to weak seabreezes.
Easing further into Fri but with fun waves at S facing beaches under light winds.
Lots to digest, we’ll keep tabs on developments over the weekend and report back Mon.
Until then, have a great weekend!
Comments
That was a great read Steve with the morning coffee.
"Line of best fit" - quasi regression analysis, love it.
"Democratic" - election being called today
"Serious lumber" - almost wood collection time for us down south
One question, will there be some leftover NE swell to pad out the very protected southern corners on Monday?
Great pickup on that polar low last week Steve. It flew completely passed my radar,and being an avid,would be surf forecaster,left me bewildered.
Sundays fun day of ENE swell and all day offshores has been blasted!
You certainly earned your pay with that analysis Steve. Every kind of possible swell in the next week it looks like.
I just pushed a minor surgery back a week....
I'd like to request a flat spell after this please
This is the swell our banks definitely need a 10-15ft demolition/renovation makeover..send it Huey send it hhhhuey…………..
Ready to destroy the bank we finally got after the last demolition. One man's joy, another's .............
yeah, banks have been semi-ok at my local, hope they don't bail during this swell and something is around for the smaller stuff at the beachies later in the week.
Love your work Steve. The best in the business for mine.
Wow im excited for my birthday present next week. Another year older I hope I survive.
Great write up Steve, we finally have banks here too, probably about to be destroyed lol. But will be interesting to see how it all pans out.
Thanks for the massive surf forecast Steve. ....Alfred's bigger brother will be serving up deadmans dinner for the brave & ... nooks for the family
GFS wind model for Mon-Tuesday is massive
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2025/03/31/2200Z/wind/surface/level/orthog...
Possibly a few sleepless punters in Merimbula Monday night....
Now sad I am working til 11 tomorrow and will probably miss the best of the NE swell
Cracking waves this arvo clean fun 3ft NE. swell ..everyone scored
Had a swim at ocean baths Friday. Couldn’t believe it, more blueys plus the blue nudibranchs. Worst summer ever for blueys, it’s the end of March FFS!
On other matters, it’s dead calm out here now (Saturday arvo). Barely a breath of wind. Must be something out offshore as the NE swell is showing at the eastern beaches local. Plenty of punters out there for how dirty the water must be.
lol - this article is premium read only. I could read weather charts when i was a kid....
when i was 15yo i predicted a swell three days out using the old B&W newspaper charts. i got to the beach that day just on dawn. it was too big at the 6 to 8 feet north end for me and there were already 30 kooks sheltered in 3 foot kiddies corner at the south end of the beach. i spied a bank in the middle of the beach and tried to paddle out but got washed in. then i saw a knee boarder paddle out 50 metres further south so i paddled out thru that rip and made it out. but when i made it out, the kneeboarder was no where to be seen. he paddled to the south end with the kooks but i padded north onto the bank i spotted. then a set, maybe 12 feet on the face, came in and i stroked onto it just to have a look. but the wave unexpectedly capped with foam and pushed me into it. note: i was a basic surfer for a 15 year old. anyway, i stood up and was surfing down this easy face but as i approached the bottom of the wave it towered & lurched onto the sand bank. by fluke i did the perfect bottom turn then moved my front forward onto the board, doing these pumps in this gaping cavern. I thought/felt i was Larry Blair on my McCoy. The wave threw a freaking mile right over and broke with the loudest thud. I'd never heard anything like that in my young life. I came flying out and tried to do a cutback but was so manic i fell off. as i gathered my board this surfer with a twin fin jumped off the concrete promenade and was pumping one arm in the air at my wave, running down the beach, towards me. he paddled out to join me and was freaking ripping wave after wave after wave. it look me another hour to get another wave and then i went in when the wind turned onshore. anyway, that was my swell prediction story. the wave was a total fluke, a bit like Mick Fanning's 6.5 roll in at Pipe that was scored a 9.5 and a world title possibly so Quiksilver didn't have to pay Kelly a $12 million bonus for winning a 12th world title. its funny but that was one of the most memorable waves of my life; even though it was a complete fluke (because i did not have the ability to make a drop like that without a roll in; a bit like Mick & Joel struggled in the 2013 semi-finals at Pipe against John & Kelly who toyed with the vertical throwing lips).
anyway, i hope this swell this week turns on. i'm not a contender (due to repairing some old injuries) but hopefully will venture out to a secret slab i and my friend exclusively surfed for many years and hopefully watch some surfing there if its on. haven't been out there for years but i'm now residing again in the area cuz i gotta look after mum. hopefully i post some videos. the more south/SE in the swell, the better & more makeable at big size. i love it out there, on that headland, just rocks & ocean. i nearly died out there at 14yo thus i love the place. peaceful.
Good story mate! Thanks for sharing
Thanks. It just popped out of my head.
Can you believe I have worked 24 weeks with only Christmas Day off and I have 3 days off between projects and I luck into this.
I feel so blessed.
Swells definitely arriving…got an early in at a little reef that loves a NE swell…by the end of the surf S swells were crossing up the NE and giving it a nasty end section shut down.
Quite fun to see it happen in real time.
Swell jumped quickly mid today..watched one bloke get caught out stuck out back ..nice 3ft NE. swell then the south swells arrived..it was bombing around him he kept paddling further out to avoid getting smashed..then the sets finally got him ..only a young kid I found later ..he was rattled , good on him for having a crack
Bom.. Bor.. Ra
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onomatopoeia
By golly wally it got damn big just after midday even a little dangerous really undergunned for
a while then settled down and more manageable still very solid with the some sets around 8ft.
More enjoyable and more rideable for the elderly. Ended up a good 3hour plus session.
Happy birthday week for me with this swell.
Low pressure has not slid south east as forecast. Staying off the coast between Sydney and Cennie Coast.
Onshore and horrible down in Kiama, where I just happen to find myself.
And raining consistently.
Quenscliff Cam Replay 5;45am
Photo collection
Haha! What kind of monster can live with those crooked pictures!? Thought it would swing but it's just the reflection 6:45.
'How do you like them onions?'
hope you got wet, stu. i saw the best tube i've seen out the point in years this morning - fella looked so unsteady but absolutely nailed it.
Yeah, after a shocker yesterday: broke two leggies, did two swims, I got a few this morning including an account-opener in the dark that was nice. Couldn't see much, it was only the whitewash from boils that indicated a big step in the wave. Made it down that and could've ridden the rest with my eyes closed it was that much of a gimme.
sounds epic (and well-earned after the battle yesterday!)
Wash throughs, plenty of activity in the water and knifing drops on the gun…
Swell ramped up bigtime at local around 1130am yesterday, but so blown out not a soul out, it did look scary. Hunted around near home and even contemplated a 30 minute paddle to get to a not so good spot that a few punters were on but last time I did that, I ended up paddling around for 90 minutes for one close out.. So got into the car, 15 minute drive to spot down here I knew would work with the wind and yesterday's East swell direction and ended up sharing it with 30-40 others haha.