South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Oct 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small pulse of S/SE swell Tues, easing Wed with a S’ly change Tues AM
• Small S swell Tues/ easing Wed
• Minor swells Thurs/Fri 
• Tiny Sat
• Increase in NE windswell Sun, extending into Mon, favouring MNC for size
• N’ly winds increasing Sun with a S’ly change Mon
• Spell of small, weak surf ahead with mostly N’ly winds

Recap

Moderate amounts of energy from the S over the weekend with Sat seeing size to 3-4ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets with mostly raggedy conditions under SW-S winds which tended S’ly through the day. Sunday had much cleaner conditions with and offshore flow through the morning which tended to NE seabreezes in the a’noon. Size eased to provide some better quality 3ft+ surf in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. S swell has tailed right off today with a few small leftovers to 2ft at open beaches under a light W-NW flow tending to N’lies during the day.

Plenty of workable S swell over the weekend on the MNC

This week (Oct 28-Nov1)

The outlook for this week has quietened right down with a front today now looking weak and transient and only producing a minor flush of S swell. High pressure drifts into the Bight but weakens as the week progresses with a weak high cell budding off and moving NE into the Tasman. The result is a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman and inland- unstable but not very surfy. With nothing of any significance in the outlook we’ll see minor swells and lots of wind changes around troughy areas. Lets look at the specifics.

In the short run we’ll see a S’ly change work it’s way north in the morning- in before dawn on the MNC, early morning across the North Coast and mid-morning across the border. Early winds will be light and offshore in advance of the change with winds shifting mod S then SE post the change. We should see a high point in energy from the S tomorrow  (generated by the front) and S/SE from a last flare up of the low under the South Island over the weekend. Shorter period S swell should build into the 3ft range across NENSW with similar size S/SE swell offering up the occ. bigger 4ft set. Smaller surf in SEQLD should top out around 2ft with the occ. bigger set at S swell magnets.

Light winds Wed as a weak high cell drifts over Central NSW and into the Tasman. That will see light land breezes tending to light/variable SE-NE winds and a’noon NE seabreezes. We’ll be on the tail end of S swells with size to 2-3ft+ in the morning easing through the a’noon, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. 

Freshening N-NE winds Thurs as a small trough looks to form off the South Coast and move north. There should be a window of morning offshores (W/NW-NW) before winds swing N’ly at mod/fresh paces. Not much action with small leftover SE swell to 1-1.5ft and a minor NE windswell possible in the a’noon- it’s likely to be tiny and weak so keep expectations pegged very low. 

A weak front Thurs under the trough looks to supply another minor flush of S swell Fri a’noon with size to 2ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW. A trough brings another shallow change with early SW winds tending S-SE during the day. There may be some minor NE windswell on offer about the North Coast, more likely south of Yamba but nothing over 2ft (less than 2ft much more likely) - just enough for a grovel. 

This weekend (Nov 2-3)

Nothing too exciting on the radar for the start of the weekend. High pressure in the Tasman and a trough off the North Coast supply weak pressure gradients for Sat suggesting light winds for the morning tending to a’noon E’ly seabreezes. Some minor SE swell may offer up a 2ft wave at S exposed breaks with minor NE windswell a possibility for the a’noon across the MNC.

Sun looks a little more vigorous as NE winds freshen in response to an approaching trough and front. Under current modelling it looks like one of the more significant NE fetches for the Spring (at least for the Mid North Coast), extending into sub-tropical latitudes. That should see fresh NE-N/NE winds and building NE windswell to 2 occ. 3ft during the a’noon. A SW change looks to occur just after dark but we’ll finesse timing during the week. We may see a late shift in winds to the W/NW-NW as the trough approaches. Stay tuned.

Next week (Nov4 onwards)

A weak trough moves up the coast through Mon, bringing a S-SE change later Mon. Prior to that we’ll see fresh N tending NW winds with workable NE windswell to 3ft on the MNC, grading smaller with increasing N’ly latitude. 

A front and low passing to the south is very zonally oriented (W-E) and may offer a minor flush of refracted S groundswell into Tues/Wed- with the occ. 2ft set at S facing beaches under light winds. 

Following that, the Tasman returns to a weak, troughy pattern. A long, angled trough line remains weak under current modelling, possibly offering up some small SE swell next week. With minor NE windswell in the sub-tropics.

Grovel boards come into play with small, weak swells and more shifty winds, likely with a N’ly component.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.