South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Nov 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spell of small, weak surf ahead with N’ly winds in SEQLD Mon-Fri
• Wind changes ahead for NENSW as trough stalls on North Coast
• S-SE change Tues south of Yamba
• Variable winds Wed before NE breezes in the a’noon
• Surfable NE windswell Thurs/, a notch bigger Fri
• Small NE windswell this weekend
• Small blend of NE and E swells next week
• Small, flukey pulse of long period S swell Tues/Wed next week 

Recap

Not a great deal of action to recap from Sat with a small blend of S swells 2ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, messy under onshore S-SE winds. Sun was cleaner to start with some small leftover S swells to 2ft across NENSW (tiny in SEQLD). N’ly to NE’ly winds kicked up through the day. That has mostly evaporated into this morning with small leftovers less than 2ft (tiny/flat in SEQLD). Another low energy week is ahead, let’s look at the details.

Lapping on the shore this morning

This week (Nov 4-8)

Very quiet across the entire spectrum of the East coast swell window at present. Weak high pressure near New Zealand is being shunted away by another weak high cell moving into the Tasman overnight into tomorrow. Troughiness continues with a slow moving trough line semi-stalled across the MNC this week. That situation continues medium term with more slow moving trough lines. We’ll be relying on some small NE windswell episodes and great circle paths under the continent to deliver some flukey S groundswell short and medium term. 

A caveat to start- SEQLD will see N’ly winds across this entire working week- a trough line stalls around the MNC to North Coast so flukey wind changes are on offer there. North of the border- straight N’lies from Mon-Fri. 

In the short run there’s not much on offer. The trough stalls about the lower MNC, bringing S-SE winds to that area and a possible light/variable flow up to the Ballina-Byron area. Small NE windswells are on the table. Keep expectations pegged low but a few 2ft sets are on offer there, possibly offering a log surf around the MNC-North Coast area. 

Winds shift more NE on Wed as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. Early light/variable winds across NENSW will shift NE at mod/fresh paces. Tiny surf to start but by the a’noon we should start to see some workable NE windswell to 2ft. 

That signal should persist into Thurs as the tail of the fetch extends up to Fraser/K’gari latitudes, suggesting a fairly even coverage of NE windswell to 2ft+ (2-3ft across the North Coast). Another trough arriving may see winds shift more NW in the a’noon, but at this stage only the MNC looks a candidate for this shift. 

Tricky, troughy winds around on Fri as the trough line slowly reaches the MNC and likely stalls somewhere between Coffs and Yamba. We’ll likely see winds from about the compass in that region wth light W’lies tending S-SE to NE breezes as winds swirl about the trough line. N’lies in SEQLD and some variable winds just north of the trough line. NE windswell is the main swell signal and we may see that signal power up a notch as windspeeds increase into the trough line. Nothing amazing, but up into the 3ft range as an upper end. 

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

Saturday looks iffy wind-wise. We may see the trough just tickle the QLD border. Winds will depend on the position of the trough but S-SE across the North Coast (possibly extending into the Gold Coast for the morning) with N’ly winds on the Sunshine Coast and all areas seeing NE seabreezes return in the a’noon. Nothing major surf-wise- more small NE windswell, likely down a notch on Fri, but remaining surfable for a grovel- 2ft under current modelling. 

We’d expect a more E tending NE flow through Sun. A broad but weak E/NE-NE flow through the Northern Tasman should see short period swell from the same direction through the day in the 2ft range. 

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

A trough line looks to stall along the NSW coast-line next week, anchoring a NE infeed through the first half of next week. We’ll also see a broad, weak, E’ly flow in the Coral Sea which should lay down a baseline of small E’ly swells. We may see a trough (or troughs) of low pressure form offshore during this time, with the North Coast and Jervis Bay region favoured, or the entire trough line may stay coastal/inland. Either way , we should see workable NE windswell through this period, favouring  NSW for size. We’ll pencil in size building to 2ft+ Mon PM into Tues and see how it looks during the week.

Also in the mix will be some S’ly groundswell, generated early in the weekend by a low right on the edge of the circle path SW of Tasmania (see below). It becomes slow moving, just as it starts to decay but we should see some long period S swell, possibly up in the 3ft range at NENSW S facing beaches Tues , holding into Wed before easing. Very flukey source so there’ll be hits and misses on this event and probably not worth burning fuel for. 

We’ll see how all this shapes up on Wed.

Seeya then.