South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Wed Nov 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Spell of small, weak surf ahead with N’ly winds in SEQLD Mon-Fri
• Surfable NE windswell Thurs/, a notch bigger Fri
• Small NE windswell this weekend
• Small blend of NE and E swells next week
• Small, flukey pulse of long period S swell Tues/Wed next week 

Recap

Another low energy period to recap with small, weak 1-1.5ft surf yesterday under light winds (N’ly in SEQLD with a S-S/SE flow extending up to Ballina) and similar conditions today. With clean-ish conditions in the morning there is a rideable wave suitable for beginners and logs, or a grovel for the keen. N-NE winds are expected to kick up through the day. 

Very small and weak

This week (Nov 6-8)

We’re still mired in a weak, troughy spring pattern with weak high pressure drifting across the Tasman and a persistent trough line along the NSW coast linked to an inland trough/heat low across Australia. A powerful low below the continent this weekend promises a flukey south groundswell while we should see a notch more short period E swell next week from a slow moving trough/low in the Tasman. 

In the short run we’ll see more small, weak surf into tomorrow morning-  NE windswell should bump up through the day though to 2-3ft (bigger 3ft across the North Coast, 3-4ft on the MNC) as N’ly winds freshen and the proximate fetch extends up to Fraser/K’gari. You’ll need a backbeach though with N’ly winds really strengthening to fresh paces through the day. 

A trough stalls out and dissipates Fri across the Mid North Coast leaving a variable flow across the North Coast, SW on the MNC and N/NE across SEQLD. There will be a lot of variability in winds around the trough line so keep tabs on local winds if you are keen for a surf. NE windswell holds to 3ft in the morning across NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD with an easing trend during the a’noon. 

This weekend (Nov 9-10)

We should see the trough move NE slowly into Sat, suggesting a morning S-SE flow across the MNC, extending up into the North Coast during the morning before stalling about the border region.  Tyat would see continuing N’lies for SEQLD, with a period of light/variable winds possible on the Gold Coast. Easing NE windswell sees a few 2-3ft sets early, dropping down to sub 2ft during the day.

Tricky outlook for Sun as the trough stalls about the Far North Coast. Most likely we’ll see variable winds Tweed-Ballina, SW-S tending SE on the MNC and N-NE in SEQLD with that flow extending south of the border during the day.  Keep expectations pegged very low but there should be some minor NE windswell to 2ft with some short range SE swell across the MNC North Coast, not exceeding 2ft. 

Next week (Nov11 onwards)

S groundswell is still on the radar as a slow moving polar low tied to Fridays front skirts the southern edge of the swell window, over the weekend. Model skill tends to be low when resolving these fetches so there is some reason to suggest upside over model outputs across direct S facing beaches and reefs in NENSW. We should see long period swell trains show late Mon with the bulk of the swell in the 14-16 second period band showing Tues PM to 3-4ft. As always with these S groundswells from the edge of the swell window expect outliers and and uneven showings. Swells fade off through Wed. 

During this period we’ll see a slow moving high in the Tasman and a weak trough of low pressure in the Central Tasman linked to a trough off the North Coast which looks to be slow moving through next week. Winds between the high and the trough of low pressure are weak/moderate breezes but persistently aimed at Central NSW and as a result we will only see minor E/SE-SE swells start to show through Mon and persist into mid week.As the week draws on we should see a broader infeed of E'ly winds stretch into the Northern Tasman/South Pacific. No great size but up into the 2ft range mid week and then building to 2-3ft late next week is expected.

Along with this will be a variable flow around the trough, which should offer workable conditions every day. SEQLD is likely to see a more persistent N-NE flow during the week, extending into NENSW from mid-week onwards.

This pattern looks to break down late next week as a front pushes through into the Tasman, possibly Fri, bringing a SW-S change and some S swell. 

We’ll check that out on Fri.

Seeya then.