A deeper fetch now operating near New Zealand longitudes is better aimed at Pacific targets (some to Fiji, most to Tahiti) with some sideband S/SE groundswell due through the middle of this week.
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We’re still looking at S’ly to S/SE’ly swells next week but the overall evolution of the storms is now not as favourable with more of the energy aimed at Pacific targets.
A summer style pattern is seeing tropical moisture dragged down the East coast by a trough and deep E/NE-NE flow from a large high in the Tasman, generating large stormy swells for QLD, grading smaller as you head down the NSW coast.
A summer style pattern is seeing tropical moisture dragged down the East coast by a trough and deep E/NE-NE flow from a large high in the Tasman, generating large stormy swells for QLD, grading smaller as you head down the NSW coast.
We have a strong (1033hPa) high in the Tasman, with a deep E’ly flow through the Coral Sea feeding into a coastal trough along the QLD coast. That trough is drawing down plenty of tropical moisture in the deep onshore flow, and generating sizey, stormy E’ly swells for the sub-tropics.
Most of the swell energy from this system will be aimed at sub-tropical targets, and we will see some real size from the E as winds feed into the trough. Unfortunately, with a straight onshore flow for the peak of the swell.
By Tues we see late summer style sizey E’ly swells from a fully developed sea state across the Coral Sea.
By Mon we’re expecting a deep E’ly flow to have established through our near South Pacific Island chains and extending into the Coral Sea, possibly with an embedded trough or E’ly dip through the Coral Sea.
Winds will slowly ease and improve over the coming days with plenty of swell still in the mix.
No change to the outlook as a massive, slow moving low pressure system in the Tasman and strong high over Tasmania combine to fill the Tasman Sea with gales to strong gales, generating large swells.