South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Morning peak then easing S swells Boxing Day with light winds tending SE-E in SEQLD, E- NE in NSW in the a'noon
• Small S/SE swell persisting into Fri with freshening N'lies
• Building NE windswell Fri, peaking Sat, favouring MNC for size
• Quiet from next weekend and into the end of 2024

Recap

S swell came up quickly yesterday to 3-5ft at S exposed breaks under SW tending S/SE winds. It eased back a notch in the a’noon after the initial spike. A little underwhelming today with size stabilising in the 4ft range at S exposed breaks, clean under light offshore breezes tending light E/NE during the day. Nothing incredible but still some very fun waves around for Xmas day. 

Plenty of energy XMas morning in NENSW

This week (Dec 25-27)

No great change to the outlook. A deep low is moving slowly towards New Zealand but the main bulk of the fetch has already rotated away from the East Coast with an off axis fetch aimed at South Pacific Islands. Elongated high pressure is moving into the Tasman with an approaching trough, front and cut-off low expected to tighten the pressure gradient leading to freshening N’lies from Boxing Day. A quiet end to 2024 and start to 2025 is expected under a weak, troughy environment and nothing in the near and far swell swell windows. 

In the short run we’ll see S swells easing through tomorrow with a morning peak in 3-4ft (occ bigger set) surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD,  early, easing through the day. Early winds should be light from the W-SW before winds tend variable then SE-E/SE in SEQLD, tending more E-NE south of Ballina.

Winds tend N’ly and freshen on Fri. We’ll see some small S-S/SE swell from the off-axis fetch in the eastern Tasman, holding surf to 2-3ft at S magnets in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. Get in early for light NW-N winds before winds really ramp up through the day, in excess of 20kts and generating some NE windswell favouring NENSW for size. 

N'ly winds developing this week

This weekend (Dec28-29)

Nothing much this weekend. A trough brings a S’ly change to the MNC to North Coast before stalling on the border. Small NE windswells to 2ft or so (2-3ft possible on the MNC), easing through the day. Not much quality about so keep expectations low.

Size then eases right back for Sun with no significant swells in the water and tiny leftovers to 1-2ft under a light onshore flow. Get in early for cleanest conditions and bring plenty of volume to the beach. Great day for kids on new boards to get out the back.

Next week (Dec30 onwards)

Nothing of significance on the radar for next week. Weak high pressure in the Tasman and light winds and tiny swells for the last days of 2024. 

Nothing of significance first day of 2025

Models are hinting at a developing N’ly flow Tues/Wed (EC) or a weak troughy S’ly change (GFS), either of which may generate some minor rideable surf for Dec31-Jan 1.  A small trough may see some small SE swell develop mid week.

Nothing concrete for the second week of Jan either. Possible weak monsoonal low in the Coral Sea, or a weak developing trade fetch.

We’ll flag a period of slow, small surf and see how it looks on Fri.

For now, Merry Xmas all and seeya Fri.