South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Short range E’ly swells build into Tues morning with onshore E’ly tending NE’ly winds
• Vigorous S’ly change Wed with a spike in S swell building across NENSW, late in the day possible for SEQLD
• Solid short range S swells Thurs, easing during the day with moderating S’ly winds
• Long range E swells filling in Thurs and offering an inconsistent pulsey signal through Fri/Sat
• S/SE swells building Fri a’noon with light winds
• Sizey S/SE swells Sat with light morning winds tending N/NE in the a’noon and freshening
• Easing swells Sun with light morning winds and N’lies freshening
• Small E-E/NE swells filling in Mon
• Tricky outlook next week, we may see a surface low develop off NSW Coast with increasing S swells Xmas Day
• Low confidence so check back Wed
• Still tracking area between PNG and Solomon’s/New Caledonia medium term for low pressure development- check back Wed for latest 

Recap

Long period S swell Sat saw a range of wave heights with NENSW S swell magnets seeing some 4ft sets, mostly 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW with 1-2ft surf in SEQLD. Winds were light most of the day. Sunday started small with light winds but a local trough saw short range E-E/NE swells build to 2-3ft under a light SE flow. Similar size today- expected to build a notch more as E’ly winds feed into the low,  with more onshore E’ly winds in the north, lighter in the south.

Short range E'ly swells building yesterday a'noon under light SE winds

This week (Dec 16-20)

High pressure is now in the Tasman moving NE with a clearing trough off the NSW Coast and a lingering trough line and broad, weak sub-tropical circulation off the Central QLD coast. We’ll see another trough Tues and a vigorous S’ly change with a trough of low pressure deepening and forming a surface low in the Tasman mid week. We’ll see some swell from this pattern, first from the initial short range S swell and then some better quality S/SE swell as the surface low retrogrades from near the South Island back into the Tasman. Read on for details and a sketch of the Xmas week.

E’ly winds tending NE’ly in the short run as the sub-tropical low moves inland on the CQ coast with a lighter NE flow in SEQLD, tending more moderate/fresh in NENSW. We’ll see short range E’ly swells continue in the 3ft+ range, easing slowly in the a’noon as the broad low moves inland.

We’ll see an aggressive trough moves northwards during Wed, bringing a vigorous S’ly change with winds being the change reaching strong to low end gale force. Early winds from the W/NW across the MNC with the change in to Coffs around 8-9AM, lunchtime on the Byron-Ballina stretch and across the border mid a’noon. We’ll see small surf initially with a rapid spike in S swell behind the change, building to 3-5ft across the MNC to North Coast by close of play, 3ft across the border. 

The trough moves rapidly northwards later Wed into Thurs so the initial S swell spike peaks o/night and then fades through Thurs, with a slowly moderating but still fresh  S-SE flow. Expect 4-5ft surf in NENSW to drop back to 3-4ft during the day at S exposed beaches, smaller 3-4ft to 2-3ft in SEQLD. There will be some long range E swell in the mix ,offering an inconsistent 2-3ft set. 

Friday looks interesting. Local winds should lay right down, with early land breezes and light SE breezes through the day. The trough of low pressure will have formed a deep low in the eastern Tasman near the South Island and that system is expected to retrograde back towards the East Coast during Thursday. Initially surf looks to be in the 2-3ft range but through the later a’noon we should see a nice boost in size as better angled and better quality S-S/SE swell fills in, lifting wave heights up into the 3-4ft range (few bigger sets possible). Definitely worth pencilling in Fri a’noon if you have flexibility. We’ll also see some long range E swell in the mix Fri, background stuff but offering a 2 occ. 3ft wave at very inconsistent intervals.

This weekend (Dec21-22)

Fridays' swell increase looks to boost another notch into Sat morning as the low gets a slingshot northwards through the Tasman. Combined with a weak, troughy area that suggests light winds, with a morning W-W/NW flow tending to mod N- NE seabreezes there could be some very good waves around in the morning. Expect size under current modelling in the 3-4ft range with some 5ft sets on the menu- smaller by a notch in SEQLD- with a slow easing trend in play through the a’noon. Background E swell will add some energy into the mix.

Light winds into Sun morning in SEQLD, with early NW-N breezes in NENSW before winds clock N-NE and freshen in the a’noon. There should be plenty of fun sized 3ft+ surf with a few bigger sets on offer with conditions deteriorating across open beaches in the a’noon. 

Next week (Dec23 onwards)

Very tricky forecast for the Xmas week as a troughy pattern causes lots of model divergence. Expect revisions! 

GFS outlook is the most bullish. It suggests an approaching inland low/trough and weak low in the Coral Sea with a developing E/NE infeed Mon which would see a small increase in E- E/NE swell into Mon a’noon. 

The inland low moves offshore Tues (Xmas eve) with a deep surface low forming off the NSW South Coast. 

Under this scenario we would see a rapid rise in S swell either Tues a’noon or Xmas Day (Wed) - up into the 5-6ft range or bigger with fresh SW-S winds developing. That scenario does seem outlandish for this time of year.

EC has a much more modest front pushing into the Tasman Mon, with a smaller S swell expected Tues, easing into Xmas Day with a provisional size of 3-4ft. Small E’ly swells add some energy into the mix.

We’ll update through the week of course. 

Longer term and both models are still toying with tropical developments with the corridor between the Solomons, New Caledonia and Vanuatu looking most likely for development of any tropical depressions. 

Nothing concrete at this stage so stay tuned for the next update on Wed.

Seeya then.