South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E swells into the weekend with light N’ly winds, stronger in NSW
• Weak S-SE change late Sun (NENSW) stalls before the border
• S swell pulse Mon PM, easing Tues favouring NENSW
• Small S swell pulses possible Thurs and Sat
• Small tradeswell should develop by next weekend
• Monitoring South Pacific for potential low pressure development near Fiji- some prospects medium term but low confidence in specifics. Check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Small E’ly trade-swells have just slowly backed down in size and consistent energy - still offering up a 2ft wave with the very occ. 3ft set yesterday and continuing into today. Winds were light/variable yesterday around a stalled trough, tending NE in the a’noon. We’ll see a similar wind pattern today with a light morning flow tending to E’ly then NE breezes. 

Small, peaky E'ly swells keep on keeping on

This weekend (Dec7-8)

No great change to the Sat f/cast. Light N’ly winds early with the morning land breeze effect minimised by cool water temperatures. Those winds will tend N-NE at moderate paces through the a’noon in SEQLD, fresh to strong in NENSW. There’ll be a small grovel on offer with minor E’ly trade-swell holding a 2ft wave and some NE windswell in NENSW offering up a 2ft wave for the keen in NENSW. 

Same again Sun, although we really will be seeing the last of the E’ly tradeswell so NE windswell will be padding out surf zones with a messy 2ft signal, 2-3ft in NENSW. Fresh N’lies ahead of a stalled trough which now looks to bring a S’ly change to Coffs, possibly up as far as Yamba with a variable flow north of there up to the border. N’ly winds remain mod in SEQLD. 

Next week (Dec9 onwards)

We’re still looking at a small S swell later Mon into Tues but the frontal passage responsible for it now looks more mobile and poorly aligned so wave heights get a haircut. Topping out at 2-3ft with the occ. 4ft set at the best S swell magnets later Mon in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD. Early light breezes will tend light/mod NE through the day as high pressure quickly moves NE into the Tasman, following the pattern of weak, mobile high-pressure. 

That's about it for swell for the week. Size dips down quickly through Tues after a small session in 2-3ft S swell quickly fades back. Don’t expect much in SEQLD where S facing beaches will struggle to see a wave over 2ft. Winds tend N’ly, then N/NE at light/mod speeds. S facing beaches should have a surfable wave with tiny surf elsewhere. 

A trough of low pressure we mentioned on Wed, then forms off the South Coast, bringing a S’ly change later Wed. Unfortunately the trough of low pressure remains weak and unformed and scoots away quickly, only generating small S swells. Expect small 2ft surf through Wed into Thurs, with another weak high pressure moving into the Tasman Thurs and winds clocking around from SE to E/NE-NE during the day on Thurs and remaining NE on Fri.

A front passing into the Tasman late Wed/Thurs (see below) offers a minor increase in S swell late Fri into Sat, at this stage only offering a 2-3ft wave at S facing beaches in NENSW.

Back to NE winds next weekend with some minor E-E/NE tradeswell developing from winds focussed near New Caledonia. We’ll see how models behave over the weekend but hopefully we can expect some rideable 2-3ft tradeswell by next weekend.

Longer term and we’ll be watching the South Pacific Convergence Zone for signs of low pressure development near Fiji later next week, possibly even retrograding back towards the Australian continent- that does offer possibilities of a long range E swell as we move into the Xmas week.

Long way off and thus low confidence but in the absence of any other swell sources we’ll be hoping that as the current MJO moves off the maritime continent into the Pacific it can spark some low pressure development before the Xmas period begins.

More on that Mon, in the meantime, have a great weekend!