South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of S and E swells Tues with N’ly winds
• S’ly change in across the region Wed AM with tiny surf and a small windswell in the a’noon
• Minor S-SE windswells Thurs with light winds tending N’ly
• Small, flukey S groundswell showing across NENSW Fri PM, persisting into Sat with light winds
• Light winds and small swells this weekend
• Possible SE swells mid next week
• Possible tradeswell developing later next week

Recap

Not much on offer over the weekend. A small wave from the E/NE to 1-2ft Sat, with a slight boost in NE windswell in the a’noon under light morning breezes which tended mod/fresh N/NE in the a’noon. Pretty much rinse and repeat for Sun with a small grovel on offer for the keen. Light S/SE winds this morning up to about the Northern Gold Coast with E-NE winds to the north of there with another day of small, weak surf offering up the occ. 2ft wave at open beaches. It’s not flat, but it is low energy, offering a grovel for the keen. Winds will clock around E/SE through E to E/NE-NE during the day as high pressure moves quickly into the Tasman. 

Very small and weak surf around today

This week (Dec 9-13)

A very weak troughy pattern is unfolding this week with a weak high pressure (1016hPa) cell moving into the Tasman today as a trough stalls about the Far North Coast. Another trough tomorrow brings a shallow S’ly change which again looks to stall out on the North Coast before another weak high cell moves into the Tasman late this week. In short, no major swells expected. There is a deep low expected to scoot through the lower Tasman, weakening as it does so which may offer some flukey S swell at S swell magnets Fri/Sat. Other than that, a low energy grovel is all that is on the menu. Nothing much on offer next week either, at this stage. Read on, if that outlook is not too depressing. 

In the short run we’ll see a trough pushing northwards, reaching the MNC region late a’noon and bringing a variable then S’ly flow. For the rest of the region expect another day of N’ly winds, tending light/mod in SEQLD and mod/fresh south of the border. Surf-wise we’re only looking at minor E’ly and S’ly swells to 1-2ft at best. And closer to 1ft than 2. Uninspiring stuff.

We’ll see that trough move northwards into Wed morning bringing an early SW flow across NENSW, with a S’ly change likely just sneaking across the border before washing out. Small background surf to 1-2ft again, with just a minor bump in short range S-SE swell possible in the a’noon, more likely across the MNC. Don’t expect much, just a few 2ft waves.

That windswell then fades out for Thurs with a light SW-S flow tending to mod N/NE breezes in the a’noon. A 1-2ft wave on open beaches will be suitable for beginners and big boards.

Friday sees a stalled trough somewhere about the North Coast- which should see light winds for most of the day, across most of the region with a variable flow expected. A light NE seabreeze is highly likely, especially if water remains on the cool side. As mentioned, we’ll see a flukey S groundswell generated by a fast moving compact low with severe gale force winds tracking into the lower Tasman Wed/Thurs. The system gets shunted SE and weakens as it enters the Tasman so we’ll keep expectations pegged low for a widespread event. NENSW S swell magnets should see some 2-3ft surf late Fri, persisting into Sat morning on an easing trend. Elsewhere, small NE windswells should hold a weak 1-1.5ft wave. Not flat, but getting pretty close to it.

This weekend (Dec14-15)

Another trough moving northwards and the existing stalled trough brings a S’ly change Sat so depending on timing, S facing beaches are likely to be blown out early. We may see N’ly winds in advance of the trough. Easing S swells and a minor flush of S windswell in the a’noon is on the cards. Surf likely messy at most spots and under 2ft. We’ll revise through the week and see if there is an early morning window for S facing beaches. 

Nothing much for Sun with a tiny blend of short range windswells to 1-2ft under an onshore E-SE flow. 

Next week (Dec16 onwards)

Nothing of real interest as we moves into the week before Xmas. Weak winds in the Coral and Tasman seas suggest flabby little swells in the 1-2ft range under a light onshore flow Mon-Tues. We may see a little increase in SE swell Wed as the weekend’s trough tries to consolidate as it shifts towards New Zealand. That may see surf perk up a notch into the 2-3ft range. 

Building E’ly tradeswell is a possibility Wed/Thurs as winds start to establish in the Coral Sea but models are offering mixed messages at tp the strength of the fetch with GFS not really interested in much at all. That makes confidence low for any expected size. We'll revisit on Wed.

A stronger high moving through the Bight later next week may set up a decent ridge along the coast, with tradeswell potential for the sub-tropics and some NE-E/NE swell for temperate NSW as we move into the weekend before Xmas.

A tropical low we mentioned last week now forms further East, is more compact and looks to slide SE later next week. We may see some small, background E swell in the lead-up to Xmas from this source.

Nothing concrete at this stage. 

In the absence of anything meaningful surf-wise, looks like a great week to get the Xmas shopping done.

Check back Wed for the latest.