The monsoon trough is still active with a tropical low off the N.QLD coast and lows in the South Pacific through the Island chains. Medium term surf potential rests on these tropical lows, with the supporting tradewind belt supplying plenty of energy in the interim, focussed on the sub-tropics.
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Following that, we’ll see a fallow period while we wait for the next round of Tradeswell to develop next week, possibly enhanced by tropical low pressure systems in the South Pacific and Coral Sea.
Make the most of Tuesday and Wednesday as it’s shaping to be the best run of surf we’ve seen this season, pretty much everywhere.
Great waves are expected across most coasts, on most days.
The low is slow moving as it slides to the SE of New Caledonia and looks to be reinforced by a second tropical low budding off the monsoon trough in North QLD waters. We’ll see continuing E’ly swells from this source, with a long lasting peak as the system intensifies as it drifts through the South Pacific slot over the weekend.
The slow moving low in the South Pacific slot has a very broad, almost semi-stationary fetch on its southern flank, buttressed by high pressure over New Zealand. This is likely to see a fully developed sea state with plenty of sizey mid period E swell across most of the eastern seaboard.
New high pressure moves SE of Tasmania to start next week and compared to Wed’s notes it’s looking stronger and slower moving, which is good news for surf potential, especially medium term as it anchors low pressure drifting down from the tropics into the wide open South Pacific slot.
No great change to the outlook as a tradewind fetch anchored by tropical low pressure near New Caledonia remains active before the low slides off to the SE later tomorrow and into Fri. We’ll see continuing mid-period tradeswells from this source, slowly easing from todays peak.
High pressure support for the tropical systems which is currently anchoring a tradewind fetch in the Coral Sea weakens substantially over the short term, with E swell potential thus weakening. We’ll still see plenty of fun E’ly trade swell in the sub-tropics but the top end potential has taken a haircut as well as the duration of the event.
A more classic looking summer chart to start next week with high pressure in the Tasman and low pressure centres near New Caledonia and in the South Pacific slot, with a healthy E’ly tradewind fetch extending across most of the Central and Southern Coral Seas.