While we won’t get the full payload of S’ly swell from this system as the system gets shunted SW as it enters the swell window (NE would be ideal!) we’re still on track for a few usable S swell pulses this week, with a trailing frontal system providing bigger S swell into and over the weekend.

Our Coral Sea low is now sitting just NE of Tasmania where it has merged with an exiting interior low to form a large, slow moving low-pressure gyre. Troughs are still snaking across Australia with a long trough line extending from the low pressure gyre through inland NSW up towards QLD and then into the Northern Territory, expected to move offshore through today. More inland troughs approach the coast during the rest of this week, driving an unstable but basically W’ly biased wind flow across the f/cast region through the end of the week and across the weekend. 

A trough of low pressure off the QLD Coast forms a small surface low over the weekend and this moves south Mon, interacting with a strong high moving south of Tasmania and another interior low forming in a trough line late in the weekend. This potent brew intensifies the NE-E/NE fetch forming in the Coral Sea and drags it south, where it more directly impacts temperate NSW. 

As mentioned last week we have a weak, troughy pattern in the Tasman with a broad area of high pressure now moving over the area and yet another complex low pressure system moving East across inland Australia. A series of fronts are rapidly transiting across the Lower Tasman with some small S swell pulses en route. The end of the week will see another round of chunky NE windswell develop, likely persisting over the weekend and into next week.